全球?qū)嵙φ騺喼揶D(zhuǎn)移

由雕龍文庫 分享時(shí)間：2024-03-02 06:42:50 收藏本文

In 2024 McKinsey analysts using data from the University of Groningen released a striking map showing how the global economic centre of gravityhas shifted since AD1. Yes you read that correctly: since Jesus was a year old. Looking at the map now brings a fresh reminder of how Europe's global position is fast being challenged. Awakening to that reality is why it makes sense to stick together and make the European project thrive not wither away.

2024年，麥肯錫分析師使用格羅寧根大學(xué)的數(shù)據(jù)，發(fā)布了一個(gè)驚人的地圖，展示了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)重心怎樣在公元元年就轉(zhuǎn)移了。是的，你沒看錯(cuò)，自從耶穌一歲時(shí)。現(xiàn)在再看這個(gè)圖，讓人清晰的記起，歐洲在全球的地位是怎樣迅速地被挑戰(zhàn)著。這個(gè)現(xiàn)實(shí)令人意識到，為什么團(tuán)結(jié)一致讓歐洲蓬勃發(fā)展是有意義的，而不是衰弱。

Here's a glimpse of what the map says. It took one century from 1820 to 1913 for the centre of gravity (as measured by "weighing" locations' GDP) to move from Asia to Europe. After the second world war that point moved across the Atlantic to the United States. In the 1960s 70s 80s and 90s it remained in the western part of the northern hemisphere. Then a dizzying acceleration occurred. In just one decade from 2000 to 2010 the centre swept back to Asia reversing almost all the trends of the previous 2000 years.

這里來介紹這個(gè)圖所說的內(nèi)容。從1820年到1913年，經(jīng)過近一個(gè)世紀(jì)，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)重心（通過衡量地區(qū)的GDP）從亞洲轉(zhuǎn)移到了歐洲。在二戰(zhàn)后，經(jīng)濟(jì)重心穿過大西洋轉(zhuǎn)移到了美國。在20世紀(jì)60年代、70年代、80年代和90年代，經(jīng)濟(jì)重心保持在北半球的西部。然后出現(xiàn)了一個(gè)令人暈眩的加速。僅僅十年，從2000年到2010年，經(jīng)濟(jì)重心迅速移回了亞洲，幾乎逆轉(zhuǎn)了過去2000年的所有趨勢。

I'm all for international cooperation but it always baffles me why we had to get into bed with the other European nations. It's not as if Sri Lanka is being absorbed into an Indian/Bangladeshi superstate or Chile into a Brazil/Argentina supranational structure.

我非常支持國際合作，但是有一點(diǎn)也一直困擾著我，那就是我們?yōu)槭裁纯偸呛推渌麣W洲國家牽扯在一起呢？而且又不像斯里蘭卡那樣被吸收成為印度或孟加拉國的一個(gè)超乎于州的狀態(tài)，也不像智利那樣成為巴西或阿根廷的一個(gè)超乎于國家的結(jié)構(gòu)。

Has China & India got a free trade deal with the EU? News to me. The Indian trade deal was vetoed by the UK because it obxted to including 75000 work visas in the deal. With the UK gone I've no doubt that a trade deal with India will agreed with the EU long before it is agreed with the UK.

中印是否已與歐盟達(dá)成自由貿(mào)易協(xié)議？那還真是一個(gè)大資訊。印度的貿(mào)易協(xié)議被英國否決，因?yàn)橛磳f(xié)議中的包括7.5萬份工作簽證。但隨著英國離開歐盟，我毫不懷疑，在與英國達(dá)成一致之前，歐盟與印度的貿(mào)易協(xié)議將率先達(dá)成。Could you please explain in what specific ways has the liberal left contributed to erode "Europe's rich culture" Jan Ravens being accused of racism by many on the Left for doing an imitation of Diane Abbott isn't an attack on the long tradition of political satire?

你能解釋解釋左派的自由主義是以什么樣具體的方式來損害"豐富的歐洲文化"嗎？Jan Ravens被很多左派指責(zé)種族主義，因?yàn)樗麑iane Abbott(英國工黨黑人女議員)的模仿并不是對政治諷刺傳統(tǒng)的攻擊。

It's not Berlin or Brussels running the EU. It's money. That's where a lot of it happens to be concentrated. Capitalism concentrates capital. There's your enemy. Not a country. Or a people. Or a continent.

并不是柏林或者布魯塞斯在維系著歐盟的運(yùn)行，而是金錢。資本主義攏聚資金，這資本主義的牢籠才是萬惡之源。這些資本家才是你們的敵人，而不是某個(gè)國家、某個(gè)人、或者某片大陸。

German (and Swedish another country rapidly losing control of the problem) policy where by such information is not published precisely because of its inflammatory nature. whilst of course:Asian political regimes are open & transparent when it comes to disseminating information... & do not try to filter information so as to assert their authority. btw: asking for evidence is not trolling...

由此得出，德國（也包括諸如瑞典這類正在走向失控的國家）的政策由于社會上煽動性的言論盛行，而沒有很準(zhǔn)確的被解讀。當(dāng)然與此同時(shí)，亞洲國家開放透明的政治制度則保證了政策能夠準(zhǔn)確的發(fā)布和在公眾間傳播。同時(shí)不會為了保證自己的解釋權(quán)威而過度的過濾政策信息。順帶，請?zhí)峁┳C據(jù)，不然你就是個(gè)噴子（估計(jì)在指上面那位Dan2024，鑒于他下面的言論）。

The UK can cut & paste the bits that have been agreed already and due to no longer having to get another 26 countries opinion close deals quicker. Fucking clueless. You can paste whatever you like into a document but you still need to get the other party's agreement. Say you paste the contents of the recent CETA agreement into a document and toss it over to the Canadians as a draft treaty. You expect them to sign it? Why would they do that? The UK's economy is around a tenth of the size of the EU's with next to no heacy manufacturing and a lot of services. What can the UK offer the Canadians? It won't be the same as what what the EU can. There would still be years of negotiations ahead to bespoke the treaty. Are there any intelligent brexiters here?

英國可以復(fù)制已經(jīng)被同意的并且因?yàn)闊o需再理會其他26個(gè)國家的意見，所以取消政策更快。太愚蠢了。你可以將任何你喜歡的塞進(jìn)一個(gè)文件但你依然需要獲得別的當(dāng)事人的同意。例如你將最近CETA協(xié)議寫進(jìn)一個(gè)文件并且把它扔到加拿大作為一個(gè)條約草案。你以為他們會同意簽署它？為什么他們會那么做？英國經(jīng)濟(jì)才約是歐盟經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的十分之一而且沒有重工業(yè)和許多服務(wù)業(yè)。英國能給予加拿大什么呢？它不會變得和歐盟一樣強(qiáng)大。仍然需要數(shù)年時(shí)間的談判來定制該條約。這么做是明智的嗎？

The EU's best answer to the growth of Asian power is to be the EU with an emphasis on unity towards external partners and solidarity among internal partners. This is the reverse of an hostile defensive stance. An united and strong entity can afford to be welcoming and cooperative. There is nothing illegitimate about the growth of Asian power. Like any change it may have downsides and the EU can mitigate them. Conversely a divided wobbly polity is more likely to lash out and develop a fortress mentality. See Britain...

歐盟針對亞洲力量增長的最好答案就是以一種對外部伙伴強(qiáng)調(diào)一致性和對內(nèi)部伙伴強(qiáng)調(diào)團(tuán)結(jié)性的方式結(jié)成歐洲聯(lián)盟。這是敵對和防御立場的對立面。一個(gè)團(tuán)結(jié)的、堅(jiān)強(qiáng)的實(shí)體能承擔(dān)得起接納和合作的需求。亞洲力量的壯大沒有任何不合理的地方。像任何改變一樣，這種（壯大）也可能有消極面，而歐洲聯(lián)盟可以盡力緩和這些消極面。反之，一個(gè)分裂的、搖擺不定的政體更容易成為抨擊對象從而(被迫)發(fā)展出自我保護(hù)的堡壘心態(tài)。看看英國吧....