誰(shuí)說(shuō)特朗普不可能當(dāng)選美國(guó)總統(tǒng)
It is February 2023 and the sky is falling on ourheads. Donald Trump has just won the Iowa caucusand the New Hampshire primary. Those who predicted he would have long since imploded arescrambling to fallback positions. He will flame out on Super Tuesday, they insist. He will beejected by primary voters in Jeb Bush’s Florida in March, they add.
現(xiàn)在是2023年2月，我們頭頂?shù)奶旌孟窨焖聛?lái)了。唐納德礠朗普(Donald Trump)剛剛在愛(ài)荷華州的黨團(tuán)會(huì)議上獲勝，并且贏得了新罕布什爾州的初選。那些早就預(yù)言他會(huì)失敗的人正爭(zhēng)先恐后地找尋退路。他們堅(jiān)稱，他會(huì)在“超級(jí)星期二熄火。他們又補(bǔ)充，3月份他會(huì)在杰布布什(Jeb Bush)的佛羅里達(dá)州被初選選民拋出局。
If worst comes to worst, he will meet his Waterloo at the Republican convention in July — thefirst such brokered event in decades. Fear not, wise heads will reassure us, that man couldnever be president of the United States.
如果最糟糕的事態(tài)發(fā)生，特朗普將在7月份的共和黨全國(guó)代表大會(huì)上遭遇滑鐵盧——這是數(shù)十年以來(lái)首次通過(guò)黨內(nèi)協(xié)商提名候選人。有智之士將向我們保證，別害怕，這個(gè)人永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)成為美利堅(jiān)合眾國(guó)的總統(tǒng)。
Like a stopped clock, conventional wisdom must eventually be right on Mr Trump. It goeswithout saying that sane people should hope so. Last week two of the billionaire’s moreinflamed supporters beat up a homeless Hispanic man. All Mr Trump could initially say wasthat his followers were “passionate. Make no mistake, the property tycoon who would bepresident is an unpleasant piece of work.
就像不走的鐘一天也能對(duì)上兩次，對(duì)于特朗普的一般看法最終必然是正確的。不必說(shuō)，理智的人都應(yīng)該希望如此。上周，這位億萬(wàn)富翁的兩名情緒較為激昂的支持者毆打一名無(wú)家可歸的拉丁裔男子。特朗普最初的表態(tài)不過(guò)是他的追隨者很“富于激情。毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，這名可能當(dāng)上總統(tǒng)的地產(chǎn)大亨是個(gè)令人不愉快的家伙。
Conservatives should be especially worried. His plans to round up and deport the estimated11.5m undocumented immigrants would require the federal power of a police state. His plan toscrap the 14th amendment’s birthright to US citizenship would corrode America’s soul.
保守派大概尤為憂慮。特朗普逮捕并驅(qū)逐據(jù)估計(jì)1150萬(wàn)非法移民的計(jì)劃需要一個(gè)警察國(guó)家的聯(lián)邦權(quán)力。他取消憲法第14條修正案出生公民權(quán)的計(jì)劃將會(huì)腐蝕美國(guó)的靈魂。
Yet he must be taken seriously. At first the view was that Mr Trump was merely the flavour ofthe month. People compared his sudden ascent to the 2023 Republican contest when adifferent outlier appeared to surge into the lead with each news cycle. One minute it was MicheleBachmann, the hardline Christian conservative from Minnesota. Next it was Herman Cain, theformer pizza king with his zany “999 tax plan. Then it was Newt Gingrich, the former Housespeaker. And so on. But it turned out all right in the end, as it always does. The establishmentprevailed and Mitt Romney took the nomination.
然而，對(duì)特朗普不應(yīng)等閑視之。一開(kāi)始，人們認(rèn)為他不過(guò)是一時(shí)走紅。人們將他的突然崛起和2023年大選共和黨黨內(nèi)的角逐相比，當(dāng)時(shí)每一輪資訊周期都會(huì)出現(xiàn)一個(gè)不同的異數(shù)突然占據(jù)領(lǐng)先位置。這一刻還是米歇爾巴赫曼(Michele Bachmann)，來(lái)自明尼蘇達(dá)州的基督教強(qiáng)硬派保守主義者。下一刻就變成了赫爾曼凱恩(HermanCain)，提出古怪的“999稅收計(jì)劃的前披薩大王。再下一刻是前眾議院議長(zhǎng)紐特金里奇(Newt Gingrich)，等等。但一如既往，最后結(jié)果還不錯(cuò)。共和黨內(nèi)的當(dāng)權(quán)派勝出，米特圠姆尼(Mitt Romney)得到了總統(tǒng)侯選人提名。
Why should this time be any different? Because it already is. Mr Trump has now consistentlytopped the polls for several weeks. When people are restless for a new flavour, they do notlinger for so long on one. Nor can Trumpmania be attributed to people not paying attention.Quite the opposite: they are gripped.
這一次為什么不同?因?yàn)橐呀?jīng)有所不同了。特朗普已經(jīng)連續(xù)數(shù)周在民意調(diào)查中占據(jù)榜首。當(dāng)人們焦躁地尋求一種新口味的時(shí)候，他們不會(huì)在一種口味上流連這么久。“特朗普熱也不能歸結(jié)于人們沒(méi)有關(guān)注。恰恰相反：他們被吸引住了。
The Republican debate this month had 24m viewers — the highest ratings for a non-sportingevent in US cable television history. It was also Fox News’s most watched programme ever. Ittook in almost four times as many viewers as the previous record for a Republican primarydebate (6.7m in late 2011). Doubtless many were tuning in with blood sport, rather thanpolitics, in mind. Yet Mr Trump’s lead has solidified since then.
本月共和黨的電視辯論有2400萬(wàn)觀眾——這是美國(guó)有線電視有史以來(lái)非體育節(jié)目獲得的最高收視率。這還是有史以來(lái)福克斯資訊(Fox News)觀看人數(shù)最多的節(jié)目。該節(jié)目吸引的觀眾是上一次共和黨初選辯論收視人數(shù)創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄時(shí)(2011年末的670萬(wàn))的近4倍。無(wú)疑，許多人收看這一節(jié)目是為了看政客間打個(gè)“頭破血流，而不是政治。然而，特朗普的領(lǐng)先地位在這之后穩(wěn)固下來(lái)。
Political veterans say some event will occur to bring Mr Trump’s meteor down to earth. It willhave to be something special. Every time he makes a gaffe his numbers seem to improve.Whether he is making derogatory remarks about fellow Republicans, Hispanics, popular femaletelevision anchors, or women in general, that bird has flown. In spite of his three marriages anda tendency to talk about women as sex objects, he polls well with Christian conservatives. MrTrump’s popularity is based in part on his willing obnoxiousness. His brand subverts alllaws of campaign propriety. It is hard to think of what he could say, or do, that wouldundermine that.
一些資深政治人士表示，將會(huì)發(fā)生一些事件，讓特朗普這顆一飛沖天的流星跌落到地面。這必須是一些特別的事件。每次他失言，他的支持率似乎都在上升。不管他詆毀的是共和黨同僚、拉丁裔、當(dāng)紅電視女主持人，還是女性這個(gè)整體，他都逃脫了罪責(zé)。盡管他有三次婚姻，還有把女性說(shuō)成性玩物的傾向，他在基督教保守主義人士中的民調(diào)結(jié)果很好。他的人氣部分基于他恣意地招人厭惡。他的招牌顛覆了所有競(jìng)選禮儀準(zhǔn)則。很難想象他的何種言論或者舉動(dòng)會(huì)削弱他的人氣。
All of which is confusing. Washington pundits are a bit like those dazed cops in Basic Instinctwatching Sharon Stone light up a cigarette. What are we going to do? Arrest him?
一切都令人疑惑。華盛頓的專家們有點(diǎn)像是電影《本能》(Basic Instinct)中茫然地看著莎朗斯通(SharonStone)點(diǎn)燃一支香煙的警察。我們要干什么?逮捕他嗎?
That brings us to the final line of defence — the brokered convention. With 17 candidatescompeting and none, other than Mr Trump, having yet sustained a lead, the chances werealready tilting towards one.
這讓我們退到了最后一道防線——黨內(nèi)協(xié)調(diào)的共和黨代表大會(huì)。有17名候選人參與角逐，除了特朗普以外，還沒(méi)有一個(gè)人長(zhǎng)時(shí)間保持領(lǐng)先，機(jī)會(huì)已經(jīng)向一個(gè)人傾斜。
Even without Mr Trump, this is the most fractured and fractious Republican field in moderntimes. Let us suppose Mr Trump wins a quarter of the delegates in the primaries and theremaining three-quarters are distributed between Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio — andperhaps Ted Cruz and John Kasich.
即使沒(méi)有特朗普，這也是現(xiàn)代最支離破碎，最難以駕馭的共和黨角逐場(chǎng)了。我們假設(shè)特朗普在初選中贏得了四分之一的代表的支持，剩下四分之三則分布在杰布布什、斯科特茠克(Scott Walker)、馬可脠比奧(MarcoRubio)——或許還有特德克魯茲(Ted Cruz)和約翰慍罓奇(John Kasich)身上。
Add them all up and Mr Trump could easily be ejected. But that supposes the rest havecoalesced around one standard bearer. It is easy to imagine Mr Rubio awarding his delegatesto Mr Bush, or vice versa. But what about Mr Cruz, the Tea Party-backed senator from Texas?The establishment can only prevail if it agrees.
把他們加在一起，可以輕而易舉地讓特朗普出局。但這預(yù)先假設(shè)了其他人會(huì)以一個(gè)旗手為核心聯(lián)合起來(lái)。不難想象馬可脠比奧將支持自己的代表轉(zhuǎn)給杰布布什，反過(guò)來(lái)也有可能。但獲得茶黨支持的得克薩斯州參議員特德克魯茲呢?共和黨的當(dāng)權(quán)派只有達(dá)成一致才能成功。
Let us suppose it does and Mr Bush emerges from a bitter few days of horse-trading as theRepublican nominee. What will Mr Trump do then? Admit that the game is up after a fair fight?Or enter the field as a third-party candidate? My money would be on the latter.
假設(shè)他們的確達(dá)成一致，杰布布什經(jīng)過(guò)數(shù)日艱苦的討價(jià)還價(jià)脫穎而出，獲得了共和黨總統(tǒng)候選人提名。特朗普會(huì)做些什么?承認(rèn)在一場(chǎng)公平的較量之后游戲結(jié)束了?還是以第三黨候選人的身份參選?我賭會(huì)發(fā)生后一種情況。
There would be all sorts of technical difficulties in putting his name on the ballot at that latestage. But cash goes a long way and Mr Trump has plenty.
要讓他的名字出現(xiàn)在最后階段的投票箱上，存在各種各樣的技術(shù)困難。但金錢對(duì)此大有幫助，而特朗普有很多錢。
More to the point, he has ego. People debate Mr Trump’s ideology. Some say he is nativist.Others say he is a moderate conservative with a nasty streak. The truth is he is making it upas he goes along. Mr Trump has always been about Mr Trump. If he made it to a brokeredconvention he would not stop there.
更重要的是，他很自負(fù)。人們就特朗普的意識(shí)形態(tài)展開(kāi)辯論。一些人說(shuō)他是本土主義者。還有人說(shuō)他是個(gè)有點(diǎn)討厭的溫和派保守主義者。真相是，他只管走自己的路。特朗普從來(lái)都是以特朗普為中心。如果他真的成功走到黨內(nèi)協(xié)調(diào)代表大會(huì)的階段，他不會(huì)就此止步。
As regards predictions, I will risk one more. Mr Trump will never be president of the US. Indeed,he is already halfway to ensuring that none of his Republican rivals will get there either.
至于預(yù)測(cè)，我要冒險(xiǎn)再做一次。特朗普永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)成為美國(guó)總統(tǒng)。事實(shí)上，在確保他的共和黨內(nèi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手一個(gè)也當(dāng)不了總統(tǒng)方面，他已經(jīng)成功了一半。
It is February 2023 and the sky is falling on ourheads. Donald Trump has just won the Iowa caucusand the New Hampshire primary. Those who predicted he would have long since imploded arescrambling to fallback positions. He will flame out on Super Tuesday, they insist. He will beejected by primary voters in Jeb Bush’s Florida in March, they add.
現(xiàn)在是2023年2月，我們頭頂?shù)奶旌孟窨焖聛?lái)了。唐納德礠朗普(Donald Trump)剛剛在愛(ài)荷華州的黨團(tuán)會(huì)議上獲勝，并且贏得了新罕布什爾州的初選。那些早就預(yù)言他會(huì)失敗的人正爭(zhēng)先恐后地找尋退路。他們堅(jiān)稱，他會(huì)在“超級(jí)星期二熄火。他們又補(bǔ)充，3月份他會(huì)在杰布布什(Jeb Bush)的佛羅里達(dá)州被初選選民拋出局。
If worst comes to worst, he will meet his Waterloo at the Republican convention in July — thefirst such brokered event in decades. Fear not, wise heads will reassure us, that man couldnever be president of the United States.
如果最糟糕的事態(tài)發(fā)生，特朗普將在7月份的共和黨全國(guó)代表大會(huì)上遭遇滑鐵盧——這是數(shù)十年以來(lái)首次通過(guò)黨內(nèi)協(xié)商提名候選人。有智之士將向我們保證，別害怕，這個(gè)人永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)成為美利堅(jiān)合眾國(guó)的總統(tǒng)。
Like a stopped clock, conventional wisdom must eventually be right on Mr Trump. It goeswithout saying that sane people should hope so. Last week two of the billionaire’s moreinflamed supporters beat up a homeless Hispanic man. All Mr Trump could initially say wasthat his followers were “passionate. Make no mistake, the property tycoon who would bepresident is an unpleasant piece of work.
就像不走的鐘一天也能對(duì)上兩次，對(duì)于特朗普的一般看法最終必然是正確的。不必說(shuō)，理智的人都應(yīng)該希望如此。上周，這位億萬(wàn)富翁的兩名情緒較為激昂的支持者毆打一名無(wú)家可歸的拉丁裔男子。特朗普最初的表態(tài)不過(guò)是他的追隨者很“富于激情。毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，這名可能當(dāng)上總統(tǒng)的地產(chǎn)大亨是個(gè)令人不愉快的家伙。
Conservatives should be especially worried. His plans to round up and deport the estimated11.5m undocumented immigrants would require the federal power of a police state. His plan toscrap the 14th amendment’s birthright to US citizenship would corrode America’s soul.
保守派大概尤為憂慮。特朗普逮捕并驅(qū)逐據(jù)估計(jì)1150萬(wàn)非法移民的計(jì)劃需要一個(gè)警察國(guó)家的聯(lián)邦權(quán)力。他取消憲法第14條修正案出生公民權(quán)的計(jì)劃將會(huì)腐蝕美國(guó)的靈魂。
Yet he must be taken seriously. At first the view was that Mr Trump was merely the flavour ofthe month. People compared his sudden ascent to the 2023 Republican contest when adifferent outlier appeared to surge into the lead with each news cycle. One minute it was MicheleBachmann, the hardline Christian conservative from Minnesota. Next it was Herman Cain, theformer pizza king with his zany “999 tax plan. Then it was Newt Gingrich, the former Housespeaker. And so on. But it turned out all right in the end, as it always does. The establishmentprevailed and Mitt Romney took the nomination.
然而，對(duì)特朗普不應(yīng)等閑視之。一開(kāi)始，人們認(rèn)為他不過(guò)是一時(shí)走紅。人們將他的突然崛起和2023年大選共和黨黨內(nèi)的角逐相比，當(dāng)時(shí)每一輪資訊周期都會(huì)出現(xiàn)一個(gè)不同的異數(shù)突然占據(jù)領(lǐng)先位置。這一刻還是米歇爾巴赫曼(Michele Bachmann)，來(lái)自明尼蘇達(dá)州的基督教強(qiáng)硬派保守主義者。下一刻就變成了赫爾曼凱恩(HermanCain)，提出古怪的“999稅收計(jì)劃的前披薩大王。再下一刻是前眾議院議長(zhǎng)紐特金里奇(Newt Gingrich)，等等。但一如既往，最后結(jié)果還不錯(cuò)。共和黨內(nèi)的當(dāng)權(quán)派勝出，米特圠姆尼(Mitt Romney)得到了總統(tǒng)侯選人提名。
Why should this time be any different? Because it already is. Mr Trump has now consistentlytopped the polls for several weeks. When people are restless for a new flavour, they do notlinger for so long on one. Nor can Trumpmania be attributed to people not paying attention.Quite the opposite: they are gripped.
這一次為什么不同?因?yàn)橐呀?jīng)有所不同了。特朗普已經(jīng)連續(xù)數(shù)周在民意調(diào)查中占據(jù)榜首。當(dāng)人們焦躁地尋求一種新口味的時(shí)候，他們不會(huì)在一種口味上流連這么久。“特朗普熱也不能歸結(jié)于人們沒(méi)有關(guān)注。恰恰相反：他們被吸引住了。
The Republican debate this month had 24m viewers — the highest ratings for a non-sportingevent in US cable television history. It was also Fox News’s most watched programme ever. Ittook in almost four times as many viewers as the previous record for a Republican primarydebate (6.7m in late 2011). Doubtless many were tuning in with blood sport, rather thanpolitics, in mind. Yet Mr Trump’s lead has solidified since then.
本月共和黨的電視辯論有2400萬(wàn)觀眾——這是美國(guó)有線電視有史以來(lái)非體育節(jié)目獲得的最高收視率。這還是有史以來(lái)福克斯資訊(Fox News)觀看人數(shù)最多的節(jié)目。該節(jié)目吸引的觀眾是上一次共和黨初選辯論收視人數(shù)創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄時(shí)(2011年末的670萬(wàn))的近4倍。無(wú)疑，許多人收看這一節(jié)目是為了看政客間打個(gè)“頭破血流，而不是政治。然而，特朗普的領(lǐng)先地位在這之后穩(wěn)固下來(lái)。
Political veterans say some event will occur to bring Mr Trump’s meteor down to earth. It willhave to be something special. Every time he makes a gaffe his numbers seem to improve.Whether he is making derogatory remarks about fellow Republicans, Hispanics, popular femaletelevision anchors, or women in general, that bird has flown. In spite of his three marriages anda tendency to talk about women as sex objects, he polls well with Christian conservatives. MrTrump’s popularity is based in part on his willing obnoxiousness. His brand subverts alllaws of campaign propriety. It is hard to think of what he could say, or do, that wouldundermine that.
一些資深政治人士表示，將會(huì)發(fā)生一些事件，讓特朗普這顆一飛沖天的流星跌落到地面。這必須是一些特別的事件。每次他失言，他的支持率似乎都在上升。不管他詆毀的是共和黨同僚、拉丁裔、當(dāng)紅電視女主持人，還是女性這個(gè)整體，他都逃脫了罪責(zé)。盡管他有三次婚姻，還有把女性說(shuō)成性玩物的傾向，他在基督教保守主義人士中的民調(diào)結(jié)果很好。他的人氣部分基于他恣意地招人厭惡。他的招牌顛覆了所有競(jìng)選禮儀準(zhǔn)則。很難想象他的何種言論或者舉動(dòng)會(huì)削弱他的人氣。
All of which is confusing. Washington pundits are a bit like those dazed cops in Basic Instinctwatching Sharon Stone light up a cigarette. What are we going to do? Arrest him?
一切都令人疑惑。華盛頓的專家們有點(diǎn)像是電影《本能》(Basic Instinct)中茫然地看著莎朗斯通(SharonStone)點(diǎn)燃一支香煙的警察。我們要干什么?逮捕他嗎?
That brings us to the final line of defence — the brokered convention. With 17 candidatescompeting and none, other than Mr Trump, having yet sustained a lead, the chances werealready tilting towards one.
這讓我們退到了最后一道防線——黨內(nèi)協(xié)調(diào)的共和黨代表大會(huì)。有17名候選人參與角逐，除了特朗普以外，還沒(méi)有一個(gè)人長(zhǎng)時(shí)間保持領(lǐng)先，機(jī)會(huì)已經(jīng)向一個(gè)人傾斜。
Even without Mr Trump, this is the most fractured and fractious Republican field in moderntimes. Let us suppose Mr Trump wins a quarter of the delegates in the primaries and theremaining three-quarters are distributed between Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio — andperhaps Ted Cruz and John Kasich.
即使沒(méi)有特朗普，這也是現(xiàn)代最支離破碎，最難以駕馭的共和黨角逐場(chǎng)了。我們假設(shè)特朗普在初選中贏得了四分之一的代表的支持，剩下四分之三則分布在杰布布什、斯科特茠克(Scott Walker)、馬可脠比奧(MarcoRubio)——或許還有特德克魯茲(Ted Cruz)和約翰慍罓奇(John Kasich)身上。
Add them all up and Mr Trump could easily be ejected. But that supposes the rest havecoalesced around one standard bearer. It is easy to imagine Mr Rubio awarding his delegatesto Mr Bush, or vice versa. But what about Mr Cruz, the Tea Party-backed senator from Texas?The establishment can only prevail if it agrees.
把他們加在一起，可以輕而易舉地讓特朗普出局。但這預(yù)先假設(shè)了其他人會(huì)以一個(gè)旗手為核心聯(lián)合起來(lái)。不難想象馬可脠比奧將支持自己的代表轉(zhuǎn)給杰布布什，反過(guò)來(lái)也有可能。但獲得茶黨支持的得克薩斯州參議員特德克魯茲呢?共和黨的當(dāng)權(quán)派只有達(dá)成一致才能成功。
Let us suppose it does and Mr Bush emerges from a bitter few days of horse-trading as theRepublican nominee. What will Mr Trump do then? Admit that the game is up after a fair fight?Or enter the field as a third-party candidate? My money would be on the latter.
假設(shè)他們的確達(dá)成一致，杰布布什經(jīng)過(guò)數(shù)日艱苦的討價(jià)還價(jià)脫穎而出，獲得了共和黨總統(tǒng)候選人提名。特朗普會(huì)做些什么?承認(rèn)在一場(chǎng)公平的較量之后游戲結(jié)束了?還是以第三黨候選人的身份參選?我賭會(huì)發(fā)生后一種情況。
There would be all sorts of technical difficulties in putting his name on the ballot at that latestage. But cash goes a long way and Mr Trump has plenty.
要讓他的名字出現(xiàn)在最后階段的投票箱上，存在各種各樣的技術(shù)困難。但金錢對(duì)此大有幫助，而特朗普有很多錢。
More to the point, he has ego. People debate Mr Trump’s ideology. Some say he is nativist.Others say he is a moderate conservative with a nasty streak. The truth is he is making it upas he goes along. Mr Trump has always been about Mr Trump. If he made it to a brokeredconvention he would not stop there.
更重要的是，他很自負(fù)。人們就特朗普的意識(shí)形態(tài)展開(kāi)辯論。一些人說(shuō)他是本土主義者。還有人說(shuō)他是個(gè)有點(diǎn)討厭的溫和派保守主義者。真相是，他只管走自己的路。特朗普從來(lái)都是以特朗普為中心。如果他真的成功走到黨內(nèi)協(xié)調(diào)代表大會(huì)的階段，他不會(huì)就此止步。
As regards predictions, I will risk one more. Mr Trump will never be president of the US. Indeed,he is already halfway to ensuring that none of his Republican rivals will get there either.
至于預(yù)測(cè)，我要冒險(xiǎn)再做一次。特朗普永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)成為美國(guó)總統(tǒng)。事實(shí)上，在確保他的共和黨內(nèi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手一個(gè)也當(dāng)不了總統(tǒng)方面，他已經(jīng)成功了一半。
