從歐洲看大國間的政治博弈
After a few sunny weeks, a political and economicstorm is battering the euro zone once again
度過幾個星期的好日子后，政治經濟風暴再度席卷歐元區
THE sugar-rush brought on by the European Central Bank’s pledge to intervene in bondmarkets to help troubled euro-zone countries—some diplomats call it “Mario Draghi’s icecream”—was bound to fade at some point. But nobody expected it to fade quite so suddenlythis week.
歐洲中央銀行承諾干預債券市場用來幫助歐元區國家擺脫困境，這些“短暫的春天”被一些外交官稱為“馬里奧.德拉吉(Mario Draghi)的冰淇淋”，在某種程度上注定會失效的。但沒有人預料到它在本周消退得如突然。
Anti-austerity protests in Spain and Greece, uncertainty over their bail-out terms, theresurgence of Catalan secessionism, the likely departure of Mario Monti as Italy’s primeminister next year, obstacles to creating a credible banking union (see Charlemagne) and adarkening economic outlook all combined to dispel hope that the euro zone was out of thewoods. Spanish and Italian bond yields shot back up and European stockmarkets fell.
西班牙和希臘的對緊縮的抗議活動,他們獲得救助條件的不確定性,加泰羅尼亞分離主義的復蘇,可能離任的馬意大利總理Mario Monti(馬里奧·蒙蒂)，以及建立一個安全可靠銀行聯盟(見Charlemagne專欄)的諸多障礙和經濟前景的暗淡無光，所有這些不利因素都預示著歐元區走出困境的希望越來越渺茫。西班牙和意大利兩國債券收益雖有所回升，但歐洲股市整體卻已跌入谷底。
The summer’s panic about the euro zone had been assuaged by the ECB’s announcement ofplans to buy unlimited amounts of short-dated debt of vulnerable countries such as Spainand Italy. This backstop would depend on their governments first seeking assistance from theeuro-zone rescue funds, and then submitting to a formal, externally monitored reformprogramme.
今年夏天和歐元有關的恐慌，在歐洲央行的一份申明中——計劃向西班牙、意大利等經濟危機較為嚴重的國家，購買大量其無限的短期債務，使得其困境有所緩解。這一擔保會取決于他們的政府首先向歐元區救助基金申請幫助, 然后提交一份正式并接受國外監管的改革計劃。
Both out of national pride, and because Germany does not want Spain to ask for more money,the Spanish government has hesitated about taking the ECB’s outstretched hand. BehindEuropean officials’ public praise for the deficit-cutting measures taken by Mariano Rajoy, theSpanish prime minister, there is dismay over his ineptness in handling the crisis, not least theever-changing estimates of the money needed to recapitalise Spain’s banks.
這些都出自于民族自豪感,因為德國不希望西班牙借貸更多資金, 西班牙政府對于歐洲央行提供的資金幫助猶豫不定。在歐洲各國對于西班牙首相馬里亞諾·拉霍伊(Mariano Rajoy)的赤字削減政策一片贊揚聲的背后，這位西班牙首相在處理這些危機時總是讓人們對他的無能感到失望，特別是在西班牙銀行重組所耗費的資金的數目上，這個數字總是一而再再而三地發生改變。
As The Economist went to press, Mr Rajoy was due to unveil a budget for next year and a newset of structural reforms, as well as the results of a detailed assessment of Spain’s bank-recapitalisation needs. These have been co-ordinated with European officials, perhaps to allowMr Rajoy to claim that Spain will face no fresh conditions beyond the ones he has announcedhimself. But the gains from any such choreography have been offset by clashes on thestreets of Madrid during anti-austerity protests and by the resurgence of Catalan nationalism.Mr Rajoy’s attempt to rein in spending in Spain’s autonomous regions has prompted Artur Mas,the president of Catalonia, to call an election on November 25th, after his demand for more taxautonomy was rebuffed. Mr Mas is talking of holding a referendum on independence, whichcould throw Spain into a constitutional crisis on top of its economic one.
正當《經濟學人》印刷之時,拉霍伊將公布一個下一年預算和一套新的結構改革,以及一個西班牙的銀行資本重組的詳細的評估結果。這些都需要與歐洲官員協調,也許是為了讓拉霍伊先生聲明,西班牙將不再對已聲明的條件外另加新的條件。但是，由于反緊縮抗議期間，馬德里街巷的沖突，及加泰羅尼亞民族主義的復蘇，任何預算之中的收益都已經被抵消了。拉霍伊先生試圖控制在西班牙自治區的支出的想法，刺激到泰羅尼亞地區長官Artur Mas ,在拉霍伊要求更多自治權遭到拒絕后，他提出11月25日舉行一次選舉的意見。而Artur Mas先生所提出的舉行獨立公投,可能使得西班牙不僅要面臨經濟行危機，又即將陷入憲法危機。
If Mr Rajoy’s stock in European capitals has fallen, that of Antonis Samaras, the Greek primeminister, has risen. Once reviled for resisting austerity while in opposition, the conservativeleader has, since his election in June, impressed fellow leaders with a new-found zeal for fiscaldiscipline and reform. Yet it will be hard to reconcile Mr Samaras’s call for an extra two yearsto bring down the deficit with creditors’ refusal to lend him more money, in effect a third bail-out.
如果拉霍伊先生在歐洲各國政要的聲望已經下跌,那么希臘總理Antonis Samaras將會逆勢上升。這位反對派保守黨領袖向來在抵制緊縮中被詬病,然而他在今年6月的選舉中上任以來財政紀律和改革上的果斷干練風格, 給各派領導人留下了深刻的印象。然而，一方面Samaras要求延長兩年時間以緩解財政赤字，另一方面希臘的債權人又拒絕繼續向其借貸資金(這其實是第三次援助計劃)。
Mr Samaras is caught between the rescuers’ demands for more spending cuts and boiling angeron the streets. Police fired tear gas at hooded protesters hurling petrol bombs on September26th, the day of a general strike, while tens of thousands of demonstrators outside the Greekparliament shouted “EU, IMF Out!”. European officials say much now depends on whether, aftersome massaging of Greece’s figures, the IMF can be cajoled into declaring its gargantuan debtto be “sustainable”. The fund, for its part, is privately urging euro-zone countries to write offsome of their loans to Greece, but that is unlikely until after Germany’s election next year.
Samaras 現在被夾在援助者要求更大程度地減少開支和希臘民眾對此要求沸騰的怒火之間。在9月26日這天的大罷工中，警察向蒙面投擲汽油炸彈的抗議者發射了催淚彈, 而成千上萬的示威者在希臘議會大樓外高喊“歐盟、國際貨幣基金組織滾出去!”。歐洲官員表示,現在大部分取決于，國際貨幣基金組織經過希臘的‘按摩’是否相信并宣布其龐大的債務是“可持續的”。該基金組織,就其本身而言,在私下敦促歐元區國家放棄他們對希臘的債權,但是這到明年德國大選之前都是不可能的。
In Italy there is nervousness about the course of still-fragile reforms after the technocraticprime minister, Mario Monti, declared that he would not seek to stay in office beyond generalelections due next spring. Mr Monti told CNN: “I think it’s important that the whole politicalgame resumes in Italy, hopefully with a higher degree of responsibility and maturity.” GivenItaly’s politics, and the reforms that Italy still has to undertake, that is asking a lot.
而在意大利，學者型總理Mario Monti宣布在明年的大選中，將按照原計劃不會尋求連任，而舉國上下都對還未完成穩定的改革進程還有些擔心。Monti對CNN(美國有線資訊網)稱: “在我看來，意大利政治博弈的重啟是很重要的，希望時機成熟的時候，會實行新的制度，與此同時還需要高度的責任感。”但是考慮到意大利政治現狀，和現在仍在進行中的改革，這個似乎有點困難。
Confidence in the future of the euro is hardly being helped by signs that Germany and othercreditor countries are backtracking on last June’s summit deal to create a new euro-zone banksupervisor and, thereafter, to recapitalise troubled banks directly, in countries such as Spainand Italy, with money from a euro-zone rescue fund. Along with the Netherlands and Finland,Germany now wants direct recapitalisation to exclude “legacy” assets. Karl Whelan, aprominent Irish economist, summed it up with a blog post headlined: “Germany to Spain andIreland: drop dead”.
去年六月峰會上，德國和其他債權國達成創建一個新歐元區銀行監管機構的協議，并希望借此通過歐元區救助基金來直接重組西班牙、意大利等國的問題銀行。而今這些國家開始背棄這一協議，這一信號絲毫無助于增強大家對于歐元前景的信心，因此，就算有歐元區援助基金的貸款的幫助，但是對歐元區一些國家困難重重的銀行(比如西班牙和意大利)重組沒有什么直接性的幫助。除了荷蘭和芬蘭，現在德國也想通過直接資金重組，以沖減“遺留”下來的資產。一名著名的愛爾蘭經濟學家Karl Whelan用一篇博客的題目總結了這一切：“德國對西班牙和愛爾蘭說：去你的”。
After a few sunny weeks, a political and economicstorm is battering the euro zone once again
度過幾個星期的好日子后，政治經濟風暴再度席卷歐元區
THE sugar-rush brought on by the European Central Bank’s pledge to intervene in bondmarkets to help troubled euro-zone countries—some diplomats call it “Mario Draghi’s icecream”—was bound to fade at some point. But nobody expected it to fade quite so suddenlythis week.
歐洲中央銀行承諾干預債券市場用來幫助歐元區國家擺脫困境，這些“短暫的春天”被一些外交官稱為“馬里奧.德拉吉(Mario Draghi)的冰淇淋”，在某種程度上注定會失效的。但沒有人預料到它在本周消退得如突然。
Anti-austerity protests in Spain and Greece, uncertainty over their bail-out terms, theresurgence of Catalan secessionism, the likely departure of Mario Monti as Italy’s primeminister next year, obstacles to creating a credible banking union (see Charlemagne) and adarkening economic outlook all combined to dispel hope that the euro zone was out of thewoods. Spanish and Italian bond yields shot back up and European stockmarkets fell.
西班牙和希臘的對緊縮的抗議活動,他們獲得救助條件的不確定性,加泰羅尼亞分離主義的復蘇,可能離任的馬意大利總理Mario Monti(馬里奧·蒙蒂)，以及建立一個安全可靠銀行聯盟(見Charlemagne專欄)的諸多障礙和經濟前景的暗淡無光，所有這些不利因素都預示著歐元區走出困境的希望越來越渺茫。西班牙和意大利兩國債券收益雖有所回升，但歐洲股市整體卻已跌入谷底。
The summer’s panic about the euro zone had been assuaged by the ECB’s announcement ofplans to buy unlimited amounts of short-dated debt of vulnerable countries such as Spainand Italy. This backstop would depend on their governments first seeking assistance from theeuro-zone rescue funds, and then submitting to a formal, externally monitored reformprogramme.
今年夏天和歐元有關的恐慌，在歐洲央行的一份申明中——計劃向西班牙、意大利等經濟危機較為嚴重的國家，購買大量其無限的短期債務，使得其困境有所緩解。這一擔保會取決于他們的政府首先向歐元區救助基金申請幫助, 然后提交一份正式并接受國外監管的改革計劃。
Both out of national pride, and because Germany does not want Spain to ask for more money,the Spanish government has hesitated about taking the ECB’s outstretched hand. BehindEuropean officials’ public praise for the deficit-cutting measures taken by Mariano Rajoy, theSpanish prime minister, there is dismay over his ineptness in handling the crisis, not least theever-changing estimates of the money needed to recapitalise Spain’s banks.
這些都出自于民族自豪感,因為德國不希望西班牙借貸更多資金, 西班牙政府對于歐洲央行提供的資金幫助猶豫不定。在歐洲各國對于西班牙首相馬里亞諾·拉霍伊(Mariano Rajoy)的赤字削減政策一片贊揚聲的背后，這位西班牙首相在處理這些危機時總是讓人們對他的無能感到失望，特別是在西班牙銀行重組所耗費的資金的數目上，這個數字總是一而再再而三地發生改變。
As The Economist went to press, Mr Rajoy was due to unveil a budget for next year and a newset of structural reforms, as well as the results of a detailed assessment of Spain’s bank-recapitalisation needs. These have been co-ordinated with European officials, perhaps to allowMr Rajoy to claim that Spain will face no fresh conditions beyond the ones he has announcedhimself. But the gains from any such choreography have been offset by clashes on thestreets of Madrid during anti-austerity protests and by the resurgence of Catalan nationalism.Mr Rajoy’s attempt to rein in spending in Spain’s autonomous regions has prompted Artur Mas,the president of Catalonia, to call an election on November 25th, after his demand for more taxautonomy was rebuffed. Mr Mas is talking of holding a referendum on independence, whichcould throw Spain into a constitutional crisis on top of its economic one.
正當《經濟學人》印刷之時,拉霍伊將公布一個下一年預算和一套新的結構改革,以及一個西班牙的銀行資本重組的詳細的評估結果。這些都需要與歐洲官員協調,也許是為了讓拉霍伊先生聲明,西班牙將不再對已聲明的條件外另加新的條件。但是，由于反緊縮抗議期間，馬德里街巷的沖突，及加泰羅尼亞民族主義的復蘇，任何預算之中的收益都已經被抵消了。拉霍伊先生試圖控制在西班牙自治區的支出的想法，刺激到泰羅尼亞地區長官Artur Mas ,在拉霍伊要求更多自治權遭到拒絕后，他提出11月25日舉行一次選舉的意見。而Artur Mas先生所提出的舉行獨立公投,可能使得西班牙不僅要面臨經濟行危機，又即將陷入憲法危機。
If Mr Rajoy’s stock in European capitals has fallen, that of Antonis Samaras, the Greek primeminister, has risen. Once reviled for resisting austerity while in opposition, the conservativeleader has, since his election in June, impressed fellow leaders with a new-found zeal for fiscaldiscipline and reform. Yet it will be hard to reconcile Mr Samaras’s call for an extra two yearsto bring down the deficit with creditors’ refusal to lend him more money, in effect a third bail-out.
如果拉霍伊先生在歐洲各國政要的聲望已經下跌,那么希臘總理Antonis Samaras將會逆勢上升。這位反對派保守黨領袖向來在抵制緊縮中被詬病,然而他在今年6月的選舉中上任以來財政紀律和改革上的果斷干練風格, 給各派領導人留下了深刻的印象。然而，一方面Samaras要求延長兩年時間以緩解財政赤字，另一方面希臘的債權人又拒絕繼續向其借貸資金(這其實是第三次援助計劃)。
Mr Samaras is caught between the rescuers’ demands for more spending cuts and boiling angeron the streets. Police fired tear gas at hooded protesters hurling petrol bombs on September26th, the day of a general strike, while tens of thousands of demonstrators outside the Greekparliament shouted “EU, IMF Out!”. European officials say much now depends on whether, aftersome massaging of Greece’s figures, the IMF can be cajoled into declaring its gargantuan debtto be “sustainable”. The fund, for its part, is privately urging euro-zone countries to write offsome of their loans to Greece, but that is unlikely until after Germany’s election next year.
Samaras 現在被夾在援助者要求更大程度地減少開支和希臘民眾對此要求沸騰的怒火之間。在9月26日這天的大罷工中，警察向蒙面投擲汽油炸彈的抗議者發射了催淚彈, 而成千上萬的示威者在希臘議會大樓外高喊“歐盟、國際貨幣基金組織滾出去!”。歐洲官員表示,現在大部分取決于，國際貨幣基金組織經過希臘的‘按摩’是否相信并宣布其龐大的債務是“可持續的”。該基金組織,就其本身而言,在私下敦促歐元區國家放棄他們對希臘的債權,但是這到明年德國大選之前都是不可能的。
In Italy there is nervousness about the course of still-fragile reforms after the technocraticprime minister, Mario Monti, declared that he would not seek to stay in office beyond generalelections due next spring. Mr Monti told CNN: “I think it’s important that the whole politicalgame resumes in Italy, hopefully with a higher degree of responsibility and maturity.” GivenItaly’s politics, and the reforms that Italy still has to undertake, that is asking a lot.
而在意大利，學者型總理Mario Monti宣布在明年的大選中，將按照原計劃不會尋求連任，而舉國上下都對還未完成穩定的改革進程還有些擔心。Monti對CNN(美國有線資訊網)稱: “在我看來，意大利政治博弈的重啟是很重要的，希望時機成熟的時候，會實行新的制度，與此同時還需要高度的責任感?！钡强紤]到意大利政治現狀，和現在仍在進行中的改革，這個似乎有點困難。
Confidence in the future of the euro is hardly being helped by signs that Germany and othercreditor countries are backtracking on last June’s summit deal to create a new euro-zone banksupervisor and, thereafter, to recapitalise troubled banks directly, in countries such as Spainand Italy, with money from a euro-zone rescue fund. Along with the Netherlands and Finland,Germany now wants direct recapitalisation to exclude “legacy” assets. Karl Whelan, aprominent Irish economist, summed it up with a blog post headlined: “Germany to Spain andIreland: drop dead”.
去年六月峰會上，德國和其他債權國達成創建一個新歐元區銀行監管機構的協議，并希望借此通過歐元區救助基金來直接重組西班牙、意大利等國的問題銀行。而今這些國家開始背棄這一協議，這一信號絲毫無助于增強大家對于歐元前景的信心，因此，就算有歐元區援助基金的貸款的幫助，但是對歐元區一些國家困難重重的銀行(比如西班牙和意大利)重組沒有什么直接性的幫助。除了荷蘭和芬蘭，現在德國也想通過直接資金重組，以沖減“遺留”下來的資產。一名著名的愛爾蘭經濟學家Karl Whelan用一篇博客的題目總結了這一切：“德國對西班牙和愛爾蘭說：去你的”。
