中國(guó)樓市犍牛可否繼續(xù)瘋跑
When Sino Land’s Robert Ng first came to Hong Kong from Singapore about three decades ago, the real estate developer bid aggressively at land auctions and was widely seen to be an interloper.
當(dāng)信和置業(yè)(Sino Land)的黃志祥(Robert Ng)大約30年前首次從新加坡來(lái)到香港的時(shí)候，這位房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商在土地拍賣中積極投標(biāo)，很多人把他看作一名闖入者。
Conventional wisdom was that he overpaid for everything, used a lot of debt and would surely implode.
大家都認(rèn)為，黃志祥高價(jià)拿地，大量舉債，將來(lái)肯定要破產(chǎn)。
However, as market prices kept rising, his aggressive faith paid off big time and today, he is one of the top property tycoons in Hong Kong.
然而，隨著市場(chǎng)價(jià)格持續(xù)上漲，這種激進(jìn)理念給他帶來(lái)了巨大收益。如今，黃志祥是香港頂級(jí)房地產(chǎn)大亨之一。
Now, Chinese developers are the object of a similar debate.
現(xiàn)在，中國(guó)內(nèi)地的房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商引發(fā)了一場(chǎng)類似的爭(zhēng)論。
Property, particularly residential property, has been very volatile, stories of vast ghost cities abound and few people have any desire to live in fourth-tier cities, the only ones where property is even remotely affordable for most of the population.
房地產(chǎn)（尤其是住宅地產(chǎn)）市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)劇烈，到處是鬼城傳聞，沒有多少人愿意住在四線城市，而多數(shù)人只有在這類城市才勉強(qiáng)買得起房子。
Many analysts consider the most leveraged mainland developers vulnerable to a financial blow-up at any time.
許多分析師認(rèn)為，中國(guó)內(nèi)地杠桿化程度最大的開發(fā)商隨時(shí)可能爆發(fā)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)。
Some of them, such as China Evergrande Group have debt loads of upwards of $60bn (according to its first-half interim unaudited results).
有些開發(fā)商的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)超過(guò)600億美元，比如中國(guó)恒大集團(tuán)（根據(jù)該公司未經(jīng)審計(jì)的半年報(bào)）。
Moreover, Hong Kong has seen an influx of mainland development activity, suggesting that these players are not particularly bullish on their prospects at home.
此外，內(nèi)地開發(fā)商紛紛涌入香港拓展業(yè)務(wù)，表明這些開發(fā)商對(duì)內(nèi)地房地產(chǎn)前景并非特別看好。
But as so often is the case with China, the doomsayers may well be wrong.
但中國(guó)的情況往往是，悲觀預(yù)言者很可能是錯(cuò)的。
Property as an asset class has become important in China — maybe too important.
房地產(chǎn)作為一個(gè)資產(chǎn)類別在中國(guó)非常重要——可能過(guò)于重要了。
It is critical to the financial system (since 70 per cent of all bank loans are backed by real estate collateral), as a source of economic growth and as a source of savings and wealth for many households.
作為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)源頭以及許多家庭儲(chǔ)蓄和財(cái)富的源泉，房地產(chǎn)對(duì)中國(guó)金融體系至為關(guān)鍵（因?yàn)?0%的銀行貸款是房地產(chǎn)抵押物支持的）。
It is hard for China’s domestic economy to do well if property does not.
如果房地產(chǎn)不行，中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)很難表現(xiàn)良好。
Property is an alternative currency in China, says Nicole Wang, the regional head of property research for CLSA in Hong Kong.
香港里昂證券(CLSA)的房產(chǎn)研究部門地區(qū)主管Nicole Wang表示：在中國(guó)，房地產(chǎn)就是一種替代貨幣。
But no asset class is as sensitive to liquidity’s soothing effect as property and there is a lot of liquidity in China.
但是，對(duì)于流動(dòng)性所具有的安撫效果，沒有一種資產(chǎn)類別像房地產(chǎn)那么敏感，而中國(guó)有大量的流動(dòng)性。
And as it always does, liquidity is buoying the property market, well beyond the first-tier cities where so many couples go through staged divorces just so that they can each buy a starter home on more attractive terms.
一如既往，流動(dòng)性正在推高房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)，而且遠(yuǎn)不止是在一線城市——在許多一線城市，許多夫婦假離婚以便每人能夠以更有利條款購(gòu)買首套房。
New home prices jumped 1.3 per cent month over month in August, the strongest increase since 2011, according to data from JPMorgan.
摩根大通(JPMorgan)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年8月，新房?jī)r(jià)格環(huán)比上漲1.3%，為2011年以來(lái)的最大漲幅。
Only four cities reported a drop in new home prices while they rose in 64 cities, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
中國(guó)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，只有4個(gè)城市的新房?jī)r(jià)格下降，而64個(gè)城市的新房?jī)r(jià)格上漲。
And economists such as Haibin Zhu of JPMorgan dismiss recent tightening measures as not aggressive enough and likely to curtail supply, thereby driving up prices even more.
摩根大通的朱海斌等經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為最近的收緊措施力度不夠大，并可能抑制供應(yīng)，從而進(jìn)一步推升房?jī)r(jià)。
Liquidity is coming from the sky, says one Hong Kong-based hedge fund manager, noting that 40 per cent of all global money supply in recent years has come from China.
香港的一位對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理表示：流動(dòng)性好似從天上來(lái)。他指出，最近幾年全球貨幣供應(yīng)有40%來(lái)自中國(guó)。
So even as central banks in Japan and the US debate helicopter money for local infrastructure and other ambitious development projects, China comes closest to realising that concept as it ramps up its money printing presses.
因此，在日本和美國(guó)的央行討論采取直升機(jī)撒錢方式，上馬本地基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和其他大項(xiàng)目之際，中國(guó)已加快了印鈔速度，這是其距離認(rèn)識(shí)直升機(jī)撒錢這個(gè)概念最近的時(shí)候。
China’s total social financing for August was again at highs set earlier this year, while for the first half it amounted to $1.5tn, he adds.
他補(bǔ)充稱，中國(guó)8月份的社會(huì)融資總量再次達(dá)到今年早些時(shí)候的高點(diǎn)，而上半年達(dá)到1.5萬(wàn)億美元。
Mortgage loans are growing rapidly; almost one-third of the increase in loans in the first half came from the property sector, according to data from the CLSA arm of Citic Securities.
抵押貸款迅速增長(zhǎng)；中信證券(Citic Securities)旗下里昂證券(CLSA)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年上半年，近三分之一貸款增量來(lái)自房地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域。
The second-round impact outside China is already being felt as the price of copper and other commodities recover.
隨著銅和其他大宗商品價(jià)格回升，中國(guó)以外的地區(qū)正在感受這種增長(zhǎng)的第二輪影響。
Moreover, there are a lot of reasons why the business is attractive in Hong Kong that do not point to a meltdown in the property market across the border.
此外，香港房地產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)具有吸引力有許多原因，它并不意味著內(nèi)地房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)將會(huì)崩潰。
That is true of course despite the excessive borrowings, the apparent oversupply in unattractive places and the political risk which can haunt even the most attractive property firms such as Kaisa or Fosun.
情況確實(shí)如此，盡管存在過(guò)度借貸、非熱點(diǎn)區(qū)域供應(yīng)過(guò)多以及困擾佳兆業(yè)(Kaisa)或復(fù)星(Fosun)等著名房地產(chǎn)公司的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
Those factors include lower taxes and bigger scale, and also — it is true — the desire for US dollar assets, according to Ms Wang.
Nicole Wang表示，香港具有吸引力的因素包括較低的稅率和較大的規(guī)模，還有人們對(duì)美元資產(chǎn)的胃口（的確如此）。
There are risks of course, among them affordability as income growth slows.
當(dāng)然也存在一些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，其中包括隨著收入增長(zhǎng)放緩而出現(xiàn)的購(gòu)買能力下降。
A recent informal survey in Singapore showed that a majority of those polled would prefer to own a luxury residential tower there than holding 30-year US Treasury bond.
新加坡最近的一項(xiàng)非正式調(diào)查顯示，大多數(shù)受訪者擁有中國(guó)一套豪宅的意愿超過(guò)持有30年期美國(guó)國(guó)債。
Only one investor questioned landlords’ ability to raise rents going forward.
只有一位投資者質(zhì)疑業(yè)主未來(lái)提高租金的能力。
China is not the only place where such questions are being asked.
中國(guó)并非唯一遭受此類質(zhì)疑的地區(qū)。
When Sino Land’s Robert Ng first came to Hong Kong from Singapore about three decades ago, the real estate developer bid aggressively at land auctions and was widely seen to be an interloper.
當(dāng)信和置業(yè)(Sino Land)的黃志祥(Robert Ng)大約30年前首次從新加坡來(lái)到香港的時(shí)候，這位房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商在土地拍賣中積極投標(biāo)，很多人把他看作一名闖入者。
Conventional wisdom was that he overpaid for everything, used a lot of debt and would surely implode.
大家都認(rèn)為，黃志祥高價(jià)拿地，大量舉債，將來(lái)肯定要破產(chǎn)。
However, as market prices kept rising, his aggressive faith paid off big time and today, he is one of the top property tycoons in Hong Kong.
然而，隨著市場(chǎng)價(jià)格持續(xù)上漲，這種激進(jìn)理念給他帶來(lái)了巨大收益。如今，黃志祥是香港頂級(jí)房地產(chǎn)大亨之一。
Now, Chinese developers are the object of a similar debate.
現(xiàn)在，中國(guó)內(nèi)地的房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商引發(fā)了一場(chǎng)類似的爭(zhēng)論。
Property, particularly residential property, has been very volatile, stories of vast ghost cities abound and few people have any desire to live in fourth-tier cities, the only ones where property is even remotely affordable for most of the population.
房地產(chǎn)（尤其是住宅地產(chǎn)）市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)劇烈，到處是鬼城傳聞，沒有多少人愿意住在四線城市，而多數(shù)人只有在這類城市才勉強(qiáng)買得起房子。
Many analysts consider the most leveraged mainland developers vulnerable to a financial blow-up at any time.
許多分析師認(rèn)為，中國(guó)內(nèi)地杠桿化程度最大的開發(fā)商隨時(shí)可能爆發(fā)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)。
Some of them, such as China Evergrande Group have debt loads of upwards of $60bn (according to its first-half interim unaudited results).
有些開發(fā)商的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)超過(guò)600億美元，比如中國(guó)恒大集團(tuán)（根據(jù)該公司未經(jīng)審計(jì)的半年報(bào)）。
Moreover, Hong Kong has seen an influx of mainland development activity, suggesting that these players are not particularly bullish on their prospects at home.
此外，內(nèi)地開發(fā)商紛紛涌入香港拓展業(yè)務(wù)，表明這些開發(fā)商對(duì)內(nèi)地房地產(chǎn)前景并非特別看好。
But as so often is the case with China, the doomsayers may well be wrong.
但中國(guó)的情況往往是，悲觀預(yù)言者很可能是錯(cuò)的。
Property as an asset class has become important in China — maybe too important.
房地產(chǎn)作為一個(gè)資產(chǎn)類別在中國(guó)非常重要——可能過(guò)于重要了。
It is critical to the financial system (since 70 per cent of all bank loans are backed by real estate collateral), as a source of economic growth and as a source of savings and wealth for many households.
作為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)源頭以及許多家庭儲(chǔ)蓄和財(cái)富的源泉，房地產(chǎn)對(duì)中國(guó)金融體系至為關(guān)鍵（因?yàn)?0%的銀行貸款是房地產(chǎn)抵押物支持的）。
It is hard for China’s domestic economy to do well if property does not.
如果房地產(chǎn)不行，中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)很難表現(xiàn)良好。
Property is an alternative currency in China, says Nicole Wang, the regional head of property research for CLSA in Hong Kong.
香港里昂證券(CLSA)的房產(chǎn)研究部門地區(qū)主管Nicole Wang表示：在中國(guó)，房地產(chǎn)就是一種替代貨幣。
But no asset class is as sensitive to liquidity’s soothing effect as property and there is a lot of liquidity in China.
但是，對(duì)于流動(dòng)性所具有的安撫效果，沒有一種資產(chǎn)類別像房地產(chǎn)那么敏感，而中國(guó)有大量的流動(dòng)性。
And as it always does, liquidity is buoying the property market, well beyond the first-tier cities where so many couples go through staged divorces just so that they can each buy a starter home on more attractive terms.
一如既往，流動(dòng)性正在推高房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)，而且遠(yuǎn)不止是在一線城市——在許多一線城市，許多夫婦假離婚以便每人能夠以更有利條款購(gòu)買首套房。
New home prices jumped 1.3 per cent month over month in August, the strongest increase since 2011, according to data from JPMorgan.
摩根大通(JPMorgan)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年8月，新房?jī)r(jià)格環(huán)比上漲1.3%，為2011年以來(lái)的最大漲幅。
Only four cities reported a drop in new home prices while they rose in 64 cities, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
中國(guó)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，只有4個(gè)城市的新房?jī)r(jià)格下降，而64個(gè)城市的新房?jī)r(jià)格上漲。
And economists such as Haibin Zhu of JPMorgan dismiss recent tightening measures as not aggressive enough and likely to curtail supply, thereby driving up prices even more.
摩根大通的朱海斌等經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為最近的收緊措施力度不夠大，并可能抑制供應(yīng)，從而進(jìn)一步推升房?jī)r(jià)。
Liquidity is coming from the sky, says one Hong Kong-based hedge fund manager, noting that 40 per cent of all global money supply in recent years has come from China.
香港的一位對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理表示：流動(dòng)性好似從天上來(lái)。他指出，最近幾年全球貨幣供應(yīng)有40%來(lái)自中國(guó)。
So even as central banks in Japan and the US debate helicopter money for local infrastructure and other ambitious development projects, China comes closest to realising that concept as it ramps up its money printing presses.
因此，在日本和美國(guó)的央行討論采取直升機(jī)撒錢方式，上馬本地基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和其他大項(xiàng)目之際，中國(guó)已加快了印鈔速度，這是其距離認(rèn)識(shí)直升機(jī)撒錢這個(gè)概念最近的時(shí)候。
China’s total social financing for August was again at highs set earlier this year, while for the first half it amounted to $1.5tn, he adds.
他補(bǔ)充稱，中國(guó)8月份的社會(huì)融資總量再次達(dá)到今年早些時(shí)候的高點(diǎn)，而上半年達(dá)到1.5萬(wàn)億美元。
Mortgage loans are growing rapidly; almost one-third of the increase in loans in the first half came from the property sector, according to data from the CLSA arm of Citic Securities.
抵押貸款迅速增長(zhǎng)；中信證券(Citic Securities)旗下里昂證券(CLSA)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年上半年，近三分之一貸款增量來(lái)自房地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域。
The second-round impact outside China is already being felt as the price of copper and other commodities recover.
隨著銅和其他大宗商品價(jià)格回升，中國(guó)以外的地區(qū)正在感受這種增長(zhǎng)的第二輪影響。
Moreover, there are a lot of reasons why the business is attractive in Hong Kong that do not point to a meltdown in the property market across the border.
此外，香港房地產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)具有吸引力有許多原因，它并不意味著內(nèi)地房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)將會(huì)崩潰。
That is true of course despite the excessive borrowings, the apparent oversupply in unattractive places and the political risk which can haunt even the most attractive property firms such as Kaisa or Fosun.
情況確實(shí)如此，盡管存在過(guò)度借貸、非熱點(diǎn)區(qū)域供應(yīng)過(guò)多以及困擾佳兆業(yè)(Kaisa)或復(fù)星(Fosun)等著名房地產(chǎn)公司的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
Those factors include lower taxes and bigger scale, and also — it is true — the desire for US dollar assets, according to Ms Wang.
Nicole Wang表示，香港具有吸引力的因素包括較低的稅率和較大的規(guī)模，還有人們對(duì)美元資產(chǎn)的胃口（的確如此）。
There are risks of course, among them affordability as income growth slows.
當(dāng)然也存在一些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，其中包括隨著收入增長(zhǎng)放緩而出現(xiàn)的購(gòu)買能力下降。
A recent informal survey in Singapore showed that a majority of those polled would prefer to own a luxury residential tower there than holding 30-year US Treasury bond.
新加坡最近的一項(xiàng)非正式調(diào)查顯示，大多數(shù)受訪者擁有中國(guó)一套豪宅的意愿超過(guò)持有30年期美國(guó)國(guó)債。
Only one investor questioned landlords’ ability to raise rents going forward.
只有一位投資者質(zhì)疑業(yè)主未來(lái)提高租金的能力。
China is not the only place where such questions are being asked.
中國(guó)并非唯一遭受此類質(zhì)疑的地區(qū)。
