2023考研英語(yǔ)閱讀全球通脹價(jià)格分析

　　Inflation around theworld;Parsing prices

　　全球通脹;價(jià)格分析

　　Rising inflation is not as worrisome as it appears,at least for now.

　　通脹沒(méi)有看上去那么可怕，至少現(xiàn)在如此。

　　Inflation is back. Despite a weak recovery in muchof the world, the threat of rising prices preoccupiespolicymakers and the public. Concerns are greatestin emerging markets. Inflation stands at 4.6% inChina and 5.9% in Brazil; in India it is almost 10%,if below last year s high. But it is on the rich world s agenda, too .

　　通脹回來(lái)了。盡管世界上大部分地區(qū)有略微的恢復(fù)，但是價(jià)格上漲的威脅仍縈繞在政策制定者和公眾的心頭。這種焦慮在新興市場(chǎng)最為嚴(yán)重。中國(guó)通脹率維持在4.6%，巴西是5.9%,在印度，如果說(shuō)通脹率比去年最高點(diǎn)低的話也達(dá)到了近10%。但是，通脹也提上了富國(guó)的議事日程。

　　Euro-area inflation hit 2.4% in January, according to data out this week. Jean-ClaudeTrichet, the president of the European Central Bank, has been talking tough, recalling theECB s July 2008 rate rise when concern over inflation trumped a wobbling economy. InBritain inflation has been above its 2% target since December 2009 and stood at 3.7% inDecember. Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, gave warning in January that itwill soon climb to 4-5%. Even in America, where inflation has been at historic lows, itjumped to 1.5% at the end of last year.

　　根據(jù)本周發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)，歐元區(qū)1月份的通脹率達(dá)2.4%。歐洲中央銀行行長(zhǎng)讓-克羅德特里謝回憶起歐洲央行2008年7月上調(diào)利率，那時(shí)通脹的憂慮超過(guò)了了搖搖欲墜的經(jīng)濟(jì)。在英國(guó)，通脹從2009年12月起通脹已超過(guò)其2%的目標(biāo)，2010年12月保持在3.7%。英國(guó)央行行長(zhǎng)默文金1月警告通脹率很快就會(huì)攀升至 4-5%。甚至在通脹率一直位于歷史最低點(diǎn)的美國(guó)去年年底也上漲到1.5%。

　　Much of the surge in inflation reflects dearer commodities. As well as oil and food, metalsprices have been soaring: the price of copper hit a series of record highs this week. Moreexpensive raw materials will work their way through the supply chain over the comingmonths, pushing up on inflation. Another part of the story in Europe is the effort to plugfiscal gaps by increasing VAT, a consumption tax. A hike in VAT at the start of the year willhave driven prices higher in Britain in January.

　　通脹的急劇上升反映出商品的日益昂貴。金屬、油和食品價(jià)格一直飛漲：本周銅價(jià)創(chuàng)一系列歷史最高。在未來(lái)幾月，更多的昂貴的原材料會(huì)通過(guò)供應(yīng)鏈推高通脹率。歐洲正增加增值稅以填補(bǔ)財(cái)政赤字。倫敦新年伊始增值稅的增長(zhǎng)將推動(dòng)1月價(jià)格水平上漲。

　　A rise in commodity prices or taxes has only a temporary effect on inflation, however,with the price rise dropping out of annual comparisons after a year. The stuff of nightmaresfor central bankers is that this leads to a more pernicious type of inflation. Price riseschange expectations of inflation, leading workers to bid for wage increases that preservetheir buying power and firms to push through price increases, generating a vicious spiral.

　　然而，商品價(jià)格或稅收的增長(zhǎng)只能暫時(shí)影響通脹，因?yàn)橐荒旰髢r(jià)格上漲將不具可比性。讓央行行長(zhǎng)們夜不能寐的是這將導(dǎo)致一種更惡性的通脹。價(jià)格上漲改變通脹預(yù)期，致使工人為維持購(gòu)買力而要求漲工資，企業(yè)推動(dòng)價(jià)格上漲，從而產(chǎn)生一個(gè)惡性工資價(jià)格螺旋。

　　These second-round effects are worth losing sleep over, but only when there is alreadyinflationary pressure in the wider economy, from a tight labour market and firms runningfactories at full pelt. Such overheating seems some way off for advanced economies. Theunemployment rate is in double digits in the euro area, above 9% in America and 7.9% inBritain. Wage growth has been weak, running below 1% in the euro zone and at around 2% inAmerica and Britain.

　　只有勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)緊縮，企業(yè)利用全部產(chǎn)能，致使在更大范圍的經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)存在通脹壓力時(shí)，這些第二輪效應(yīng)才值得人們?yōu)橹氜D(zhuǎn)反側(cè)。這種過(guò)熱似乎對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)遙不可及。歐元區(qū)失業(yè)率達(dá)兩位數(shù)，在美國(guó)超過(guò) 9%，在英國(guó)超過(guò)7.9%。工資漲幅不大，歐元區(qū)不到1%，而美國(guó)和英國(guó)在2%左右。

　　Inflation expectations have edged up a little in recent months. But even if workers expectedinflation to let rip, they would be in a bind. Karen Ward of HSBC reckons anxious employeeswon t ask for more pay for fear that they will end up getting the sack instead.

　　通脹預(yù)期在最近幾個(gè)月已經(jīng)略微加強(qiáng)。但是即使工人預(yù)期通脹會(huì)失控，他們?nèi)詿o(wú)能為力。匯豐銀行的KarenWard估計(jì)，焦急的員工因?yàn)楹ε卤唤夤投粫?huì)要求加薪。

　　Rich-world economies are also running well below capacity. According to the OECD, in 2010the G7 economies were anywhere between 2.4% and 4.7% below potentialoutput. Such estimates are notoriously imprecise. But if the recovery had alreadyeliminated excess capacity they would be in the wrong city, not just the wrong ballpark.

　　發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)資源遠(yuǎn)未達(dá)到充分利用。根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)合作發(fā)展組織，2010年七國(guó)集團(tuán)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)際產(chǎn)出低于潛在產(chǎn)出，差額為2.4%至4.7%之間。那類估計(jì)十分不準(zhǔn)確。但是如果復(fù)蘇已經(jīng)消除過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能，則錯(cuò)誤之處就不僅是細(xì)枝末節(jié)而是大前提就錯(cuò)了。

　　The story is very different in emerging economies. Many of these got back to their pre-crisislevels of output in 2009. With capacity constraints starting to bite, underlying inflation ison the up. Households inflation expectations are also rising. In China they are at theirhighest for over a decade and there are signs of growing wage pressure. Higher wages arenot, by themselves, a bad thing, especially in a country like China where pay has for yearsfailed to keep pace with rapid productivity growth. The danger comes when loosemonetary conditions and an overheating economy mean prices and wages chase each otherupward.

　　新興市場(chǎng)的情況大為不同。很多新型經(jīng)濟(jì)體于2009年恢復(fù)到危機(jī)前的產(chǎn)出水平。產(chǎn)能水平開始起限制作用，通脹開始上升。居民的通脹預(yù)期也在增長(zhǎng)。中國(guó)通脹已達(dá)十多年來(lái)最高水平出現(xiàn)工資上漲壓力的跡象。更高工資本身并不是件壞事，尤其是在中國(guó)這樣一個(gè)多年工資增長(zhǎng)趕不上生產(chǎn)力增長(zhǎng)的國(guó)家。但寬松的貨幣狀況和過(guò)熱的經(jīng)濟(jì)意味著價(jià)格和工資彼此追趕螺旋上升時(shí)，危險(xiǎn)就來(lái)了。

　　To prevent that, central bankers have been fighting back with higher interest rates andhigher reserve requirements. The Brazilian and Indian central banks raised rates last month;in total, they have now hiked their policy rates by 2.5 and 1.75 percentage pointsrespectively. China s central bank recently raised reserve requirements for the seventh timein a year.

　　為了控制工資價(jià)格螺旋上升，央行的銀行家們一直通過(guò)加息和上調(diào)準(zhǔn)備金率予以回?fù)簟Ｉ显掳臀骱陀《妊胄猩险{(diào)利率;現(xiàn)在他們已經(jīng)分別上調(diào)2.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)和1.75個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。中國(guó)央行最近進(jìn)行了年內(nèi)第七次上調(diào)準(zhǔn)備金率。

　　For all that, monetary conditions remain extraordinarily loose. According to JPMorgan Chase,real policy rates in emerging economiesthe official interest rate minus coreconsumer-price inflationare at their lowest level since 2000. Core consumer-priceinflation remains below its 2008 levels. Butvigilance is needed. A continuation of booming growth and cheap money will cause troublein the end.

　　盡管有上述一切措施，貨幣狀況依然十分寬松，摩根大通表示，新興市場(chǎng)的實(shí)際利率達(dá)到2000年以來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。核心消費(fèi)價(jià)格通脹率保持在2008年水平以下。但是警惕是需要的。最終，持續(xù)的經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)熱和貨幣貶值將造成麻煩。

　　Inflation around theworld;Parsing prices

　　全球通脹;價(jià)格分析

　　Rising inflation is not as worrisome as it appears,at least for now.

　　通脹沒(méi)有看上去那么可怕，至少現(xiàn)在如此。

　　Inflation is back. Despite a weak recovery in muchof the world, the threat of rising prices preoccupiespolicymakers and the public. Concerns are greatestin emerging markets. Inflation stands at 4.6% inChina and 5.9% in Brazil; in India it is almost 10%,if below last year s high. But it is on the rich world s agenda, too .

　　通脹回來(lái)了。盡管世界上大部分地區(qū)有略微的恢復(fù)，但是價(jià)格上漲的威脅仍縈繞在政策制定者和公眾的心頭。這種焦慮在新興市場(chǎng)最為嚴(yán)重。中國(guó)通脹率維持在4.6%，巴西是5.9%,在印度，如果說(shuō)通脹率比去年最高點(diǎn)低的話也達(dá)到了近10%。但是，通脹也提上了富國(guó)的議事日程。

　　Euro-area inflation hit 2.4% in January, according to data out this week. Jean-ClaudeTrichet, the president of the European Central Bank, has been talking tough, recalling theECB s July 2008 rate rise when concern over inflation trumped a wobbling economy. InBritain inflation has been above its 2% target since December 2009 and stood at 3.7% inDecember. Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, gave warning in January that itwill soon climb to 4-5%. Even in America, where inflation has been at historic lows, itjumped to 1.5% at the end of last year.

　　根據(jù)本周發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)，歐元區(qū)1月份的通脹率達(dá)2.4%。歐洲中央銀行行長(zhǎng)讓-克羅德特里謝回憶起歐洲央行2008年7月上調(diào)利率，那時(shí)通脹的憂慮超過(guò)了了搖搖欲墜的經(jīng)濟(jì)。在英國(guó)，通脹從2009年12月起通脹已超過(guò)其2%的目標(biāo)，2010年12月保持在3.7%。英國(guó)央行行長(zhǎng)默文金1月警告通脹率很快就會(huì)攀升至 4-5%。甚至在通脹率一直位于歷史最低點(diǎn)的美國(guó)去年年底也上漲到1.5%。

　　Much of the surge in inflation reflects dearer commodities. As well as oil and food, metalsprices have been soaring: the price of copper hit a series of record highs this week. Moreexpensive raw materials will work their way through the supply chain over the comingmonths, pushing up on inflation. Another part of the story in Europe is the effort to plugfiscal gaps by increasing VAT, a consumption tax. A hike in VAT at the start of the year willhave driven prices higher in Britain in January.

　　通脹的急劇上升反映出商品的日益昂貴。金屬、油和食品價(jià)格一直飛漲：本周銅價(jià)創(chuàng)一系列歷史最高。在未來(lái)幾月，更多的昂貴的原材料會(huì)通過(guò)供應(yīng)鏈推高通脹率。歐洲正增加增值稅以填補(bǔ)財(cái)政赤字。倫敦新年伊始增值稅的增長(zhǎng)將推動(dòng)1月價(jià)格水平上漲。

　　A rise in commodity prices or taxes has only a temporary effect on inflation, however,with the price rise dropping out of annual comparisons after a year. The stuff of nightmaresfor central bankers is that this leads to a more pernicious type of inflation. Price riseschange expectations of inflation, leading workers to bid for wage increases that preservetheir buying power and firms to push through price increases, generating a vicious spiral.

　　然而，商品價(jià)格或稅收的增長(zhǎng)只能暫時(shí)影響通脹，因?yàn)橐荒旰髢r(jià)格上漲將不具可比性。讓央行行長(zhǎng)們夜不能寐的是這將導(dǎo)致一種更惡性的通脹。價(jià)格上漲改變通脹預(yù)期，致使工人為維持購(gòu)買力而要求漲工資，企業(yè)推動(dòng)價(jià)格上漲，從而產(chǎn)生一個(gè)惡性工資價(jià)格螺旋。

　　These second-round effects are worth losing sleep over, but only when there is alreadyinflationary pressure in the wider economy, from a tight labour market and firms runningfactories at full pelt. Such overheating seems some way off for advanced economies. Theunemployment rate is in double digits in the euro area, above 9% in America and 7.9% inBritain. Wage growth has been weak, running below 1% in the euro zone and at around 2% inAmerica and Britain.

　　只有勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)緊縮，企業(yè)利用全部產(chǎn)能，致使在更大范圍的經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)存在通脹壓力時(shí)，這些第二輪效應(yīng)才值得人們?yōu)橹氜D(zhuǎn)反側(cè)。這種過(guò)熱似乎對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)遙不可及。歐元區(qū)失業(yè)率達(dá)兩位數(shù)，在美國(guó)超過(guò) 9%，在英國(guó)超過(guò)7.9%。工資漲幅不大，歐元區(qū)不到1%，而美國(guó)和英國(guó)在2%左右。

　　Inflation expectations have edged up a little in recent months. But even if workers expectedinflation to let rip, they would be in a bind. Karen Ward of HSBC reckons anxious employeeswon t ask for more pay for fear that they will end up getting the sack instead.

　　通脹預(yù)期在最近幾個(gè)月已經(jīng)略微加強(qiáng)。但是即使工人預(yù)期通脹會(huì)失控，他們?nèi)詿o(wú)能為力。匯豐銀行的KarenWard估計(jì)，焦急的員工因?yàn)楹ε卤唤夤投粫?huì)要求加薪。

　　Rich-world economies are also running well below capacity. According to the OECD, in 2010the G7 economies were anywhere between 2.4% and 4.7% below potentialoutput. Such estimates are notoriously imprecise. But if the recovery had alreadyeliminated excess capacity they would be in the wrong city, not just the wrong ballpark.

　　發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)資源遠(yuǎn)未達(dá)到充分利用。根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)合作發(fā)展組織，2010年七國(guó)集團(tuán)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)際產(chǎn)出低于潛在產(chǎn)出，差額為2.4%至4.7%之間。那類估計(jì)十分不準(zhǔn)確。但是如果復(fù)蘇已經(jīng)消除過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能，則錯(cuò)誤之處就不僅是細(xì)枝末節(jié)而是大前提就錯(cuò)了。

　　The story is very different in emerging economies. Many of these got back to their pre-crisislevels of output in 2009. With capacity constraints starting to bite, underlying inflation ison the up. Households inflation expectations are also rising. In China they are at theirhighest for over a decade and there are signs of growing wage pressure. Higher wages arenot, by themselves, a bad thing, especially in a country like China where pay has for yearsfailed to keep pace with rapid productivity growth. The danger comes when loosemonetary conditions and an overheating economy mean prices and wages chase each otherupward.

　　新興市場(chǎng)的情況大為不同。很多新型經(jīng)濟(jì)體于2009年恢復(fù)到危機(jī)前的產(chǎn)出水平。產(chǎn)能水平開始起限制作用，通脹開始上升。居民的通脹預(yù)期也在增長(zhǎng)。中國(guó)通脹已達(dá)十多年來(lái)最高水平出現(xiàn)工資上漲壓力的跡象。更高工資本身并不是件壞事，尤其是在中國(guó)這樣一個(gè)多年工資增長(zhǎng)趕不上生產(chǎn)力增長(zhǎng)的國(guó)家。但寬松的貨幣狀況和過(guò)熱的經(jīng)濟(jì)意味著價(jià)格和工資彼此追趕螺旋上升時(shí)，危險(xiǎn)就來(lái)了。

　　To prevent that, central bankers have been fighting back with higher interest rates andhigher reserve requirements. The Brazilian and Indian central banks raised rates last month;in total, they have now hiked their policy rates by 2.5 and 1.75 percentage pointsrespectively. China s central bank recently raised reserve requirements for the seventh timein a year.

　　為了控制工資價(jià)格螺旋上升，央行的銀行家們一直通過(guò)加息和上調(diào)準(zhǔn)備金率予以回?fù)簟Ｉ显掳臀骱陀《妊胄猩险{(diào)利率;現(xiàn)在他們已經(jīng)分別上調(diào)2.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)和1.75個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。中國(guó)央行最近進(jìn)行了年內(nèi)第七次上調(diào)準(zhǔn)備金率。

　　For all that, monetary conditions remain extraordinarily loose. According to JPMorgan Chase,real policy rates in emerging economiesthe official interest rate minus coreconsumer-price inflationare at their lowest level since 2000. Core consumer-priceinflation remains below its 2008 levels. Butvigilance is needed. A continuation of booming growth and cheap money will cause troublein the end.

　　盡管有上述一切措施，貨幣狀況依然十分寬松，摩根大通表示，新興市場(chǎng)的實(shí)際利率達(dá)到2000年以來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。核心消費(fèi)價(jià)格通脹率保持在2008年水平以下。但是警惕是需要的。最終，持續(xù)的經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)熱和貨幣貶值將造成麻煩。