2023考研英語閱讀美國的貨幣政策
Monetary policy in America
美國的貨幣政策
Taper tiger
逐漸變弱的老虎
The Federal Reserve surprises everyone bychanging nothing
美國聯邦儲備委員保持政策不變讓人們感到驚奇
SHORTLY after the Federal Reserve hinted in May that it might start to ease its monetarystimulus, rich-country bond yields shot up; emerging-market currencies and stockmarketscratered.
在美聯儲5月暗示可能會退出貨幣刺激政策后不久，富裕國家的債券收益率飆升，新興市場貨幣和股市出現震蕩。
Was it all for nothing?
難道這沒有原因嗎?
On September 18th, at the end of a closely watched meeting, the Federal Open MarketCommittee, the Fed s policy-setting body, chose not to taper.
9月18日，在一個被密切關注的會議結束時，美聯儲的政策制定機構聯邦公開市場委員會沒有選擇退出。
Instead, it said it would keep buying 85 billion a month of Treasury and mortgage bonds withnewly created money.
相反，表示將用新創造的貨幣繼續每月購買85億的國債和抵押債券。
Although the Fed had never actually promised to act in September, all the signals pointed inthat direction.
雖然美聯儲從來沒有承諾在9月份采取行動，但是所有的信號都指向這個方向。
QE would stop, it had said when thelatest bout of bond-buying began last September,when the labour-market outlook hadimproved substantially.
去年9月開始的新一輪購買債券時表示，當勞動力市場的前景已經大幅改善時QE會停下來。
Since then, the unemployment rate has dropped to 7.3% from 8.1% and privateemployment has risen by 2.3m, or 2%.
從那時起，失業率從8.1%下降至7.3%，私營部門就業增加了2.3或2%。
In June Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, said the Fed would probably start to taper byyear-end, and stop QE when unemployment hit 7%, which it expected by mid-2023.
在6月，美聯儲主席本?伯南克表示，美聯儲可能會開始在今年年底如果失業率達到7%就停止量化寬松政策，預計是在2023年中期。
So what has now held it back?
那么是什么原因導致倒退?
First, the pace of job growth has recently flagged; the drop in unemployment has beenflattered by the number of people no longer looking for work.
首先，就業增長速度最近開始減弱，失業人數的下降是被不再找工作的人數粉飾過的。
The labour-market participation rate sank to 63.2% in August, a 35-year low.
勞動力市場參與率8月下跌至63.2%，是35年來的新低。
Second, fiscal policy continues to work at cross-purposes to monetary policy.
其次，財政政策將繼續為多個貨幣政策目的起作用。
Higher taxes and spending cuts have subtracted at least a full percentage point from growththis year.
更高的稅收和削減開支至少降低了今年經濟增長整整一個百分點。
The prospect that spending caps may be lifted when the new fiscal year begins on October1st has melted away.
在10月1日新的財政年度開始時可能會取消支出上限的預期已經沒有了。
With Republicans in Congress and Barack Obama unable to agree on how to fund thegovernment or raise the Treasury s statutory debt ceiling, the risk of a governmentshutdown loomed large in the minds of Fed officials.
隨著共和黨在國會和奧巴馬政府在如何資助或提高財政部的法定債務上限上談不攏，在美聯儲的官員看來政府有很大的關閉風險。
But the third and most important restraint on the Fed was the unexpected effect onfinancial markets of a prospective change in monetary stance.
但是，對美聯儲的第三個也是最重要的約束是變動的貨幣政策對金融市場的意想不到的影響。
The central bank had always emphasised that tapering did not mean tightening.
央行此前一直強調退出并不意味著緊縮。
Provided asset purchases remained above zero, the Fed s balance-sheet would keep growingand monetary policy would still be loosening.
倘若資產購買仍高于零，美聯儲的資產負債表將保持增長和貨幣政策仍然會松動。
Separately, the Fed never wavered from its pledge to keep the federal-funds rate near zeroat least until unemployment had fallen to 6.5%.
另外，美聯儲從來沒有動搖其承諾保持聯邦基金利率接近零直到到失業率下降至6.5%。
Nonetheless, investors radically repriced their expectations of Fed policy and fled positionspredicated on a policy of QE ever after.
盡管如此，投資者從根本上重新定價他們對美聯儲政策的預期，并從量化寬松的政策以后改變了定位。
Bond yields have risen by slightly less than a percentage point since May, mortgage ratesby slightly more.
從五月以來債券收益率上升了約一個百分點，住房抵押貸款利率上漲更高一些。
Mr Bernanke fretted that this rapid tightening of financial conditions in recent months couldhave the effect of slowing growth, a problem that would be exacerbated if conditions tightenfurther.
伯南克擔憂最近幾個月這種快速緊縮財政的情況會使經濟增長放緩問題是繼續緊縮會使情況更糟。
The euphoric market response to the FOMC s decision this week would seem to vindicatethat judgment.
這周市場對聯邦公開市場委員會決定的積極反應證明了這個判斷。
But it leaves wide open the question of when the Fed will taper.
但它留下寬泛的問題，美聯儲什么時候開始緊縮。
The FOMC trimmed its projections for growth this year and next by about a quarter of apercentage point from its June forecast, to 2.2% in 2023 and 3% in 2023.
聯邦公開市場委員會對今年和明年經濟增長四分之一個百分點的6月份的預測進行了修改，2023年增長2.2%，2023年增長3%。
It also changed its unemployment projections, which it now expects to hit 7% early in 2023and 6.5% later that same year.
它也改變了失業率的預測，它現在預計2023年上半年將達到7%，和下半年6.5%。
Mr Bernanke was at pains this week to stress that the 7% unemployment target for endingQE and 6.5% threshold for raising rates have never been automatic triggers.
伯南克本周煞費苦心的強調，達到7%的失業率時退出QE政策和6.5%時提高利率從來沒有自動進行。
It all depends on what else is happening in the economy.
這一切都取決于經濟體中發生的其他事情。
It is entirely sensible for the Fed not to be slavishly bound by its guidance,
對于美聯儲不會盲目的遵從指導是完全合理的，
but that raises questions over how useful such guidance is.
但對這種指導有多大用處有人提出了疑問。
Most Fed officials expect to raise rates by 2023, for example,
大多數美聯儲官員預計2023年升息，例如，
but Mr Bernanke said rates are unlikely to rise if inflation is below its 2% target, which theFed s new projections suggest could be the case until 2023.
但伯南克表示如果通脹率低于2%的目標利率不太可能上升，美聯儲新的預測顯示直到2023年才會實行。
The start of tapering could conceivably come at the end of October if data reassure the Fedthat the economy has brushed off higher bond yields and if a fiscal train wreck has beenavoided.
如果經濟降低債券收益率的數據和財政列車已避免脫軌能夠使美聯儲相信，緊縮計劃能夠真的在10月底開始。
But there are no clear signposts, which will irk investors.
但目前還沒有明確的標志，這將會使投資者感到惱怒。
Their frustration pales next to that of the Fed itself, which has blown its balance-sheet up to3.6 trillion and held rates at zero since 2008 but achieved underwhelming results in return.
美聯儲本身相形見絀，資產負債表為3.6萬億美元，并從2008年開始維持利率為零，但并沒有取得讓人滿意的回報。
On September 17th the federal Census Bureau reported that real household incomes inAmerica, which had fallen by 8% between 2007 and 2011, did not fall further in 2023.
聯邦人口普查局9月17日報道，在美國2007年和2011年之間家庭實際收入下降了8%，在2023年并沒有進一步下跌。
That this counts as good news is telling.
這算作一個好消息。
Income inequality, meanwhile, is worsening on some measures.
同時收入不平等使一些措施惡化。
Emmanuel Saez at the University of California, Berkeley, reckons the top 10% grabbed itslargest share of total incomes since 1917 last year.
加州大學伯克利分校的埃馬紐埃爾?賽斯估計自1917年以來，去年前10%的人在總的收入份額中占有最大的部分。
This is partly due to QE, which has been very good for the stockmarket and thus the wealthy.
部分原因是由于量化寬松政策，有利于股市，使某些人更富裕。
QE works in part by boosting household wealth and thus spending and jobs, but the effectshave not yet filtered through strongly to the wider economy.
QE促進家庭財富增加，消費和就業，但效果尚未滲透到更廣泛的經濟領域。
The taps will be open a while longer yet.
水龍頭在未來的一段時間繼續打開。
詞語解釋
1.start to 開始
When and why did things start to change?
那么這種情況是什么時候開始改變的?
It was the best start to august trading since 1934.
這是1934年以來8月份最好的股市開局。
2.at the end of 在結尾，在末端
Reparation normally comes at the end of a conflict.
賠償通常是在一場沖突結束后開始的。
Participants kept their winnings at the end of the experiment.
參與者可以保留他們的獎金在實驗結束后。
3.promise to 承諾
Last year he campaigned for governor with the promise to shake up state government.
去年他憑借要徹底改變州政府現狀的承諾參選紐約州州長。
France has postponed its promise to balance its budget, from 2010 to 2023.
法國承諾2010年平衡預算，但現在已經推遲到2023年。
4.drop to 下降到，跌到
The usda said that domestic stocks-to-demand would drop to the lowest point in nearly halfa century.
美國農業部表示，美國大豆的儲量需求比將跌至近半個世紀以來最低水平。
The corn harvest is expected to drop to the lowest level since 1995.
預計玉米收成會跌到1995年以來的最低水平。
Monetary policy in America
美國的貨幣政策
Taper tiger
逐漸變弱的老虎
The Federal Reserve surprises everyone bychanging nothing
美國聯邦儲備委員保持政策不變讓人們感到驚奇
SHORTLY after the Federal Reserve hinted in May that it might start to ease its monetarystimulus, rich-country bond yields shot up; emerging-market currencies and stockmarketscratered.
在美聯儲5月暗示可能會退出貨幣刺激政策后不久，富裕國家的債券收益率飆升，新興市場貨幣和股市出現震蕩。
Was it all for nothing?
難道這沒有原因嗎?
On September 18th, at the end of a closely watched meeting, the Federal Open MarketCommittee, the Fed s policy-setting body, chose not to taper.
9月18日，在一個被密切關注的會議結束時，美聯儲的政策制定機構聯邦公開市場委員會沒有選擇退出。
Instead, it said it would keep buying 85 billion a month of Treasury and mortgage bonds withnewly created money.
相反，表示將用新創造的貨幣繼續每月購買85億的國債和抵押債券。
Although the Fed had never actually promised to act in September, all the signals pointed inthat direction.
雖然美聯儲從來沒有承諾在9月份采取行動，但是所有的信號都指向這個方向。
QE would stop, it had said when thelatest bout of bond-buying began last September,when the labour-market outlook hadimproved substantially.
去年9月開始的新一輪購買債券時表示，當勞動力市場的前景已經大幅改善時QE會停下來。
Since then, the unemployment rate has dropped to 7.3% from 8.1% and privateemployment has risen by 2.3m, or 2%.
從那時起，失業率從8.1%下降至7.3%，私營部門就業增加了2.3或2%。
In June Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, said the Fed would probably start to taper byyear-end, and stop QE when unemployment hit 7%, which it expected by mid-2023.
在6月，美聯儲主席本?伯南克表示，美聯儲可能會開始在今年年底如果失業率達到7%就停止量化寬松政策，預計是在2023年中期。
So what has now held it back?
那么是什么原因導致倒退?
First, the pace of job growth has recently flagged; the drop in unemployment has beenflattered by the number of people no longer looking for work.
首先，就業增長速度最近開始減弱，失業人數的下降是被不再找工作的人數粉飾過的。
The labour-market participation rate sank to 63.2% in August, a 35-year low.
勞動力市場參與率8月下跌至63.2%，是35年來的新低。
Second, fiscal policy continues to work at cross-purposes to monetary policy.
其次，財政政策將繼續為多個貨幣政策目的起作用。
Higher taxes and spending cuts have subtracted at least a full percentage point from growththis year.
更高的稅收和削減開支至少降低了今年經濟增長整整一個百分點。
The prospect that spending caps may be lifted when the new fiscal year begins on October1st has melted away.
在10月1日新的財政年度開始時可能會取消支出上限的預期已經沒有了。
With Republicans in Congress and Barack Obama unable to agree on how to fund thegovernment or raise the Treasury s statutory debt ceiling, the risk of a governmentshutdown loomed large in the minds of Fed officials.
隨著共和黨在國會和奧巴馬政府在如何資助或提高財政部的法定債務上限上談不攏，在美聯儲的官員看來政府有很大的關閉風險。
But the third and most important restraint on the Fed was the unexpected effect onfinancial markets of a prospective change in monetary stance.
但是，對美聯儲的第三個也是最重要的約束是變動的貨幣政策對金融市場的意想不到的影響。
The central bank had always emphasised that tapering did not mean tightening.
央行此前一直強調退出并不意味著緊縮。
Provided asset purchases remained above zero, the Fed s balance-sheet would keep growingand monetary policy would still be loosening.
倘若資產購買仍高于零，美聯儲的資產負債表將保持增長和貨幣政策仍然會松動。
Separately, the Fed never wavered from its pledge to keep the federal-funds rate near zeroat least until unemployment had fallen to 6.5%.
另外，美聯儲從來沒有動搖其承諾保持聯邦基金利率接近零直到到失業率下降至6.5%。
Nonetheless, investors radically repriced their expectations of Fed policy and fled positionspredicated on a policy of QE ever after.
盡管如此，投資者從根本上重新定價他們對美聯儲政策的預期，并從量化寬松的政策以后改變了定位。
Bond yields have risen by slightly less than a percentage point since May, mortgage ratesby slightly more.
從五月以來債券收益率上升了約一個百分點，住房抵押貸款利率上漲更高一些。
Mr Bernanke fretted that this rapid tightening of financial conditions in recent months couldhave the effect of slowing growth, a problem that would be exacerbated if conditions tightenfurther.
伯南克擔憂最近幾個月這種快速緊縮財政的情況會使經濟增長放緩問題是繼續緊縮會使情況更糟。
The euphoric market response to the FOMC s decision this week would seem to vindicatethat judgment.
這周市場對聯邦公開市場委員會決定的積極反應證明了這個判斷。
But it leaves wide open the question of when the Fed will taper.
但它留下寬泛的問題，美聯儲什么時候開始緊縮。
The FOMC trimmed its projections for growth this year and next by about a quarter of apercentage point from its June forecast, to 2.2% in 2023 and 3% in 2023.
聯邦公開市場委員會對今年和明年經濟增長四分之一個百分點的6月份的預測進行了修改，2023年增長2.2%，2023年增長3%。
It also changed its unemployment projections, which it now expects to hit 7% early in 2023and 6.5% later that same year.
它也改變了失業率的預測，它現在預計2023年上半年將達到7%，和下半年6.5%。
Mr Bernanke was at pains this week to stress that the 7% unemployment target for endingQE and 6.5% threshold for raising rates have never been automatic triggers.
伯南克本周煞費苦心的強調，達到7%的失業率時退出QE政策和6.5%時提高利率從來沒有自動進行。
It all depends on what else is happening in the economy.
這一切都取決于經濟體中發生的其他事情。
It is entirely sensible for the Fed not to be slavishly bound by its guidance,
對于美聯儲不會盲目的遵從指導是完全合理的，
but that raises questions over how useful such guidance is.
但對這種指導有多大用處有人提出了疑問。
Most Fed officials expect to raise rates by 2023, for example,
大多數美聯儲官員預計2023年升息，例如，
but Mr Bernanke said rates are unlikely to rise if inflation is below its 2% target, which theFed s new projections suggest could be the case until 2023.
但伯南克表示如果通脹率低于2%的目標利率不太可能上升，美聯儲新的預測顯示直到2023年才會實行。
The start of tapering could conceivably come at the end of October if data reassure the Fedthat the economy has brushed off higher bond yields and if a fiscal train wreck has beenavoided.
如果經濟降低債券收益率的數據和財政列車已避免脫軌能夠使美聯儲相信，緊縮計劃能夠真的在10月底開始。
But there are no clear signposts, which will irk investors.
但目前還沒有明確的標志，這將會使投資者感到惱怒。
Their frustration pales next to that of the Fed itself, which has blown its balance-sheet up to3.6 trillion and held rates at zero since 2008 but achieved underwhelming results in return.
美聯儲本身相形見絀，資產負債表為3.6萬億美元，并從2008年開始維持利率為零，但并沒有取得讓人滿意的回報。
On September 17th the federal Census Bureau reported that real household incomes inAmerica, which had fallen by 8% between 2007 and 2011, did not fall further in 2023.
聯邦人口普查局9月17日報道，在美國2007年和2011年之間家庭實際收入下降了8%，在2023年并沒有進一步下跌。
That this counts as good news is telling.
這算作一個好消息。
Income inequality, meanwhile, is worsening on some measures.
同時收入不平等使一些措施惡化。
Emmanuel Saez at the University of California, Berkeley, reckons the top 10% grabbed itslargest share of total incomes since 1917 last year.
加州大學伯克利分校的埃馬紐埃爾?賽斯估計自1917年以來，去年前10%的人在總的收入份額中占有最大的部分。
This is partly due to QE, which has been very good for the stockmarket and thus the wealthy.
部分原因是由于量化寬松政策，有利于股市，使某些人更富裕。
QE works in part by boosting household wealth and thus spending and jobs, but the effectshave not yet filtered through strongly to the wider economy.
QE促進家庭財富增加，消費和就業，但效果尚未滲透到更廣泛的經濟領域。
The taps will be open a while longer yet.
水龍頭在未來的一段時間繼續打開。
詞語解釋
1.start to 開始
When and why did things start to change?
那么這種情況是什么時候開始改變的?
It was the best start to august trading since 1934.
這是1934年以來8月份最好的股市開局。
2.at the end of 在結尾，在末端
Reparation normally comes at the end of a conflict.
賠償通常是在一場沖突結束后開始的。
Participants kept their winnings at the end of the experiment.
參與者可以保留他們的獎金在實驗結束后。
3.promise to 承諾
Last year he campaigned for governor with the promise to shake up state government.
去年他憑借要徹底改變州政府現狀的承諾參選紐約州州長。
France has postponed its promise to balance its budget, from 2010 to 2023.
法國承諾2010年平衡預算，但現在已經推遲到2023年。
4.drop to 下降到，跌到
The usda said that domestic stocks-to-demand would drop to the lowest point in nearly halfa century.
美國農業部表示，美國大豆的儲量需求比將跌至近半個世紀以來最低水平。
The corn harvest is expected to drop to the lowest level since 1995.
預計玉米收成會跌到1995年以來的最低水平。
