考研英語閱讀專題訓練：IMF看好全球經濟前景
IMF upbeat about global outlook
A celebration of four excellent years for the world economy and warnings that the good times could end in tears：that sums up the views of Raghuram Rajan，the International Monetary Funds chief economist.
Speaking to the Financial Times in London ahead of the IMF and World Banks annual meeting in Singapore this weekend and writing in todays newspaper，Mr Rajan shows that the fund is happier about both the underpinnings of the world economy and its prospects.
A leak of the funds economic forecasts，published in the FT last week，showed it now expects global economic growth of 5.1 per cent in 2006，compared with its previous forecast of 4.8 per cent in April.
These figures and Mr Rajans thoughts will be confirmed in the publication of the IMFs World Economic Outlook today. In 2007 the fund expects a slowing of advanced economies but with emerging countries powering ahead，the world is still set to grow by 4.9 per cent.
A new concern Mr Rajan expressed while talking to the FT Financial Times，was that the productivity gains that have underpinned the world economy might peter out as fresh policy reforms stall.
What I see now is the urgency for policy reform is rather muted he says.
Mr Rajan disagrees with the growing voices predicting a recession next year. The risks are two-sided he says. Inflation and a US slowdown are risks to the US. The million-dollar question is whether the slowdown is enough to quell the inflationary pressure or whether you need more rate rises.
But the elephant in the room as far Mr Rajan is concerned is still the yawning global trade imbalances that result in a huge US trade deficit and correspondingly large surpluses in China，oil exporters and Japan.
For the past 18 months，the fund has warned of a disorderly unwinding of these imbalances，involving a slump in the US dollar，much higher global interest rates and a global recession，risking chaos in financial markets and a resurgence of protectionism.
It has called on the US to reduce its budget deficit，Europe and Japan to speed domestic economic reforms，China to boost consumption and revalue the renminbi，and the rest of Asia to increase investment. and greater exchange rate flexibility in emerging Asia ，a euphemism for Chinese revaluation of the renmimbi.
一、參考譯文：
國際貨幣基金組織首席經濟學家拉古拉姆拉詹的觀點可以概括為兩個方面：一方面慶祝世界經濟4年來的出色表現，另一方面警告大好時光可能會慘淡收場。
國際貨幣基金組織與世界銀行的年會本周末將在新加坡召開。在此之前，拉詹先生在倫敦接受了《金融時報》采訪并在本報今天的報紙上撰文。他的觀點表明，國際貨幣基金組織對世界經濟的基本狀況及其前景比先前更為樂觀。
國際貨幣基金組織透露了對經濟所作的部分預測，它們顯示，該組織預計2006年全球經濟增長為5.1%，而相比之下，該組織于今年4月所作的上一次預測為4.8%.
國際貨幣基金組織的《世界經濟展望》將于今天發表，屆時有關上述數據和拉詹想法的真實性將得到證實。該基金組織預計，2007年，發達國家的經濟增長將減速，但隨著新興國家的經濟蓬勃發展，世界經濟仍將增長4.9%.
拉詹先生在接受《金融時報》采訪時表達了一種新的憂慮，即隨著新的政策改革陷入停滯，一度支撐了世界經濟的生產率增長可能會逐漸消失。
我目前看到的情況，是政策改革的緊迫性還相當低他表示。
一種日益高漲的預測是，全球經濟明年將出現衰退。對此拉詹并不認同。風險是雙方面的他表示。通脹和美國經濟放緩是美國的風險。關鍵問題是，經濟放緩是否足以壓制通脹壓力，或是否需要進一步升息。
但在拉詹看來，最主要的問題仍是不斷擴大的全球貿易失衡。它導致美國背負巨額貿易逆差，而中國、石油出口國和日本則相應獲得了大量盈余。
過去18個月中，國際貨幣資金組織曾警告說，無序解決這些失衡，會使美元大幅貶值、全球利率大幅上升和全球經濟衰退，從而增加金融市場紊亂和保護主義再度抬頭的風險。
該組織呼吁，美國應減少預算赤字，歐洲和日本應加快內部經濟改革，中國要推動國內消費并允許人民幣進一步升值，其余亞洲國家應加大投資力度，以及亞洲新興經濟體增加匯率彈性，即委婉地敦促中國讓人民幣進一步升值。
二、重點詞匯：
monetary adj.貨幣的， 金錢的
prospect n.景色， 前景， 前途， 期望
vi.尋找， 勘探
forecast n.先見， 預見， 預測， 預報
vt.預想， 預測， 預報， 預兆
confirmed adj.證實的， 慣常的， 慢性的
underpin v.加強的基礎， 鞏固， 支撐
recession n.撤回， 退回， 退后， 工商業之衰退， 不景氣
inflationary adj.通貨膨脹的， 通貨膨脹傾向的
deficit n.赤字， 不足額
correspondingly adv.相對地， 比照地
consumption n.消費， 消費量， 肺病
revaluation n.再評價
IMF upbeat about global outlook
A celebration of four excellent years for the world economy and warnings that the good times could end in tears：that sums up the views of Raghuram Rajan，the International Monetary Funds chief economist.
Speaking to the Financial Times in London ahead of the IMF and World Banks annual meeting in Singapore this weekend and writing in todays newspaper，Mr Rajan shows that the fund is happier about both the underpinnings of the world economy and its prospects.
A leak of the funds economic forecasts，published in the FT last week，showed it now expects global economic growth of 5.1 per cent in 2006，compared with its previous forecast of 4.8 per cent in April.
These figures and Mr Rajans thoughts will be confirmed in the publication of the IMFs World Economic Outlook today. In 2007 the fund expects a slowing of advanced economies but with emerging countries powering ahead，the world is still set to grow by 4.9 per cent.
A new concern Mr Rajan expressed while talking to the FT Financial Times，was that the productivity gains that have underpinned the world economy might peter out as fresh policy reforms stall.
What I see now is the urgency for policy reform is rather muted he says.
Mr Rajan disagrees with the growing voices predicting a recession next year. The risks are two-sided he says. Inflation and a US slowdown are risks to the US. The million-dollar question is whether the slowdown is enough to quell the inflationary pressure or whether you need more rate rises.
But the elephant in the room as far Mr Rajan is concerned is still the yawning global trade imbalances that result in a huge US trade deficit and correspondingly large surpluses in China，oil exporters and Japan.
For the past 18 months，the fund has warned of a disorderly unwinding of these imbalances，involving a slump in the US dollar，much higher global interest rates and a global recession，risking chaos in financial markets and a resurgence of protectionism.
It has called on the US to reduce its budget deficit，Europe and Japan to speed domestic economic reforms，China to boost consumption and revalue the renminbi，and the rest of Asia to increase investment. and greater exchange rate flexibility in emerging Asia ，a euphemism for Chinese revaluation of the renmimbi.
一、參考譯文：
國際貨幣基金組織首席經濟學家拉古拉姆拉詹的觀點可以概括為兩個方面：一方面慶祝世界經濟4年來的出色表現，另一方面警告大好時光可能會慘淡收場。
國際貨幣基金組織與世界銀行的年會本周末將在新加坡召開。在此之前，拉詹先生在倫敦接受了《金融時報》采訪并在本報今天的報紙上撰文。他的觀點表明，國際貨幣基金組織對世界經濟的基本狀況及其前景比先前更為樂觀。
國際貨幣基金組織透露了對經濟所作的部分預測，它們顯示，該組織預計2006年全球經濟增長為5.1%，而相比之下，該組織于今年4月所作的上一次預測為4.8%.
國際貨幣基金組織的《世界經濟展望》將于今天發表，屆時有關上述數據和拉詹想法的真實性將得到證實。該基金組織預計，2007年，發達國家的經濟增長將減速，但隨著新興國家的經濟蓬勃發展，世界經濟仍將增長4.9%.
拉詹先生在接受《金融時報》采訪時表達了一種新的憂慮，即隨著新的政策改革陷入停滯，一度支撐了世界經濟的生產率增長可能會逐漸消失。
我目前看到的情況，是政策改革的緊迫性還相當低他表示。
一種日益高漲的預測是，全球經濟明年將出現衰退。對此拉詹并不認同。風險是雙方面的他表示。通脹和美國經濟放緩是美國的風險。關鍵問題是，經濟放緩是否足以壓制通脹壓力，或是否需要進一步升息。
但在拉詹看來，最主要的問題仍是不斷擴大的全球貿易失衡。它導致美國背負巨額貿易逆差，而中國、石油出口國和日本則相應獲得了大量盈余。
過去18個月中，國際貨幣資金組織曾警告說，無序解決這些失衡，會使美元大幅貶值、全球利率大幅上升和全球經濟衰退，從而增加金融市場紊亂和保護主義再度抬頭的風險。
該組織呼吁，美國應減少預算赤字，歐洲和日本應加快內部經濟改革，中國要推動國內消費并允許人民幣進一步升值，其余亞洲國家應加大投資力度，以及亞洲新興經濟體增加匯率彈性，即委婉地敦促中國讓人民幣進一步升值。
二、重點詞匯：
monetary adj.貨幣的， 金錢的
prospect n.景色， 前景， 前途， 期望
vi.尋找， 勘探
forecast n.先見， 預見， 預測， 預報
vt.預想， 預測， 預報， 預兆
confirmed adj.證實的， 慣常的， 慢性的
underpin v.加強的基礎， 鞏固， 支撐
recession n.撤回， 退回， 退后， 工商業之衰退， 不景氣
inflationary adj.通貨膨脹的， 通貨膨脹傾向的
deficit n.赤字， 不足額
correspondingly adv.相對地， 比照地
consumption n.消費， 消費量， 肺病
revaluation n.再評價
